Unified super middleweight champion Canelo Alvarez will reportedly be stripped of his IBF 168-lb title ahead of his next title defense against Edgar Berlanga on September 14th at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
The IBF title’s fate
ESPN reports that Canelo (62-2-2, 39 KOs) will lose his IBF title due to his decision not to defend against his long overdue to mandatory challenger William Scull, a little known fighter that the sanction body elevated to the #1 spot recently.
Scull (22-0, 9 KOs) has no notable wins on his resume, and it’s unclear why he’s been moved to mandatory for Canelo, but it’s not surprising that he’s been ignored. Canelo-Scull would be a PPV disaster if that fight happened.
Scull’s best career win came against a fighter named Sean Hemphill. Few fans have heard of him, and you can see why Canelo showed no interest in defending against Scull. Mike Coppinger reports that the IBF belt will be fought over by Scull and the #2 contender Vladimir Shishkin.
The Importance of a Dominant Win
“Canelo has not expressed interest in that fight, but he may change his tune if Crawford has an impressive performance on August 3rd against Madrimov,” said commentator Chris Mannix on his podcast, talking about the possibility of Canelo Alvarez potentially facing Terence Crawford in 2025.
It’s obvious that Crawford (40-0, 31 KOs) not only must win against WBA junior middleweight champion Israil Madrimov (10-0-1, 7 KOs) in Turki Alalshikh’s Riyadh Season event on August 3rd, but he’s got to look impressive.
It won’t work if Crawford wins a boring fight and plays it safe, jabbing, clinching, or wrestling, as we saw in some of his fights in the past. Crawford sometimes fights similarly to Shakur Stevenson, and that’s not entertaining to watch when he’s in that mode.
To increase his chances of landing the mega-payday against Canelo, Crawford must go to war with Madrimov and fight in the trenches on August 3rd. No one wants to see Crawford playing it safe.
“If he [Crawford] can look good against Madrimov, that can make the fight look a bit more legitimate, at least in Canelo’s eyes,” said Mike Coppinger. “I do believe they’re looking at February for Canelo-Crawford. Canelo is like anyone else. I think he is sensitive to criticism.”
Canelo’s questionable choice of Opponent
Canelo should have done the right thing by fighting David Benavidez on September 14th instead of using Edgar Berlanga as his opponent. That was a foolish move on Canelo’s part, especially given that his last opponent was a similar fighter to Berlanga, Jaime Munguia.
That guy’s entire career was built with the idea of getting the Canelo payday, and the sem-defense opponents Munguia fought were John Ryder and Sergiy Derevyanchenko. Berlanga has been matched similarly, and he’s utterly unworthy of fighting Canelo.
“He’s taking this easy fight against Berlanga in September,” said Coppinger about Canelo. “I think he’s going to have to deliver a bigger fight next year. I think Madrimov is a very dangerous opponent. I don’t think Crawford is the type to overlook an opponent, but he’s going to have to look good against Madrimov first.”
Coming off a year layoff and moving up a division, you don’t know what to expect from Terence Crawford. He needs to look spectacular against Madrimov for his sake, but that might not happen. Crawford’s inactivity, advanced age, and weight increase could be a problem against the younger fighter, Madrimov.
“If Crawford looks great, the most marketable fight for Canelo is Crawford because he’s going to be coming out guns blazing after that fight, saying, ‘I want Canelo.’ He’s probably going to be ringside for Canelo-Berlanga,” said Mannix. “He’s going to be hunting for that fight.”
Predictably, Crawford will immediately call out Canelo if he’s victorious against Madrimov on August 3rd and will start hounding him for a fight. Again, Crawford will have to look great against Madrimov in order for him to be taken seriously by Canelo and the boxing public.
If Crawford boxes Madrimov for twelve rounds in a dull fight, he will look silly calling out Canelo afterward. He’s got to take some chances in this fight by slugging with Madrimov and showing some bravery.
Crawford has got to entertain because fans don’t want to see a pot-shot Mayweather-esque retro by an aging fighter. He’s nearing 40 and has never been known for having a fan-friendly style. That’s why Crawford took so long to gain a following. It was the Spence fight that made Crawford a star, and that was because he slugged it out in that contest.
“I think people are going to start to believe that if Crawford can look dominate at 154 as he did at 147, maybe there’s a chance [against Canelo],” said Mannix. “His skillset might be enough. Height-wise, they’re not that far off when they square off with each other.
“I think a dominant win for Crawford will do a lot to push the public interest to make that fight [with Canelo] happen,” said Mannix.
A knockout win for Crawford against Madrimov is what he needs to get fans excited about seeing him fight Canelo in early 2025. However, for Crawford to stop Madrimov, he will have to put himself in harm’s way and take a lot of heavy shots. Crawford isn’t infallible.
As we saw in several of his fights, Crawford can be hurt, and he might not react well getting hit by the sledgehammer blows from the Uzbekh coming off a 13-month victory lap.
“I think it will be a very competitive fight, and I would lean towards Canelo for sure because I do think weight classes matter, especially when you’re talking about two A+ all-time greats. It is very important for Crawford to look dominant against Madrimov,” said Coppinger.
Canelo looked like a faded fighter in his last contest against Munguia last May and only fought in spurts. He appeared tired, getting hit a lot and losing rounds against a marginal fighter.
“He doesn’t have to knock him out, but he can’t look like he’s struggling, looking like he’s out of his depth at the weight,” said Coppinger about Crawford needing to look good against Madrimov.
“That would make a fight against Canelo that much more difficult to sell,” said Mannix.
I doubt that Crawford will look spectacular against Madrimov because he has a lot going against him in this fight. These are the problems Crawford has:
- Age: Turns 37 in September.
- Inactivity: 13 months
- Moving up weight: New weight class
- Fighting for the wrong reasons: Money
- Distracted by his desire to fight Canelo
- Facing a huge puncher
- Weak resume
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