An admission straight off the bat: I really don’t care what happens if Jake Paul fights Mike Tyson, presuming neither is killed or seriously injured. It’s a ludicrous concept for myriad reasons, one that speaks to boxing’s habit of staging car crashes purely for attention and the Texas Combative Sports Program should be ashamed of themselves for not applying the brakes.
However, I do strongly believe that if we get to Nov. 15 and Tyson’s ulcer hasn’t flared up again – or his arthritis isn’t crippling him – then the former champion will lose convincingly.
Here’s why:
1. Jake Paul is 31 years younger
Jake Paul is 27 years old, and Mike Tyson is 58. Paul is not only 31 years younger than Tyson, he’s also four years younger than the age gap between them.
2. Mike Tyson is 31 years older
Mike Tyson is 58 years old, and Jake Paul is 27. Being 31 years older than someone in a boxing match, unless your opponent is four years old, is a huge disadvantage.
3. Jake Paul has been active
It’s true that Paul’s quality of opposition has been questionable at best and Tyson – by a gargantuan distance – is the most accomplished fighter he’s faced. But at least he’s had some opposition and his body is used to fighting. Since his debut in 2020, he’s fought 11 times and therefore he’s had at least 11 training camps during which he will have gotten increasingly used to the various aches and pains involved.
4. Mike Tyson has been smoking pot for decades
Mike Tyson last fought in 2005 and, the exhibition with Roy Jones in 2020 notwithstanding, hasn’t exactly lived like an athlete since then. He ballooned in weight several times; he opened a marijuana farm and embraced his taste for the drug along the way. Smoking is not good for your lungs and even less so, I’d guess, when you’re 58 years old. I hear he’s taking a break from his daily habit for this fight but if his stamina hasn’t been affected by decades of smoking pot it will be a surprise. Hands up, though – I’m no doctor.
5. Jake Paul is getting better with every fight
Jake Paul is not one of the best fighters in the world and never will be. But give him some credit for dedicating himself to one of the most gruelling and humbling sports in existence. As tempting as it is to compare this matchup to those seventy-something-year-old ex-boxers beating up unsuspecting burglars, Paul’s developed his skillset and has a reasonable grasp of the basics. He has quick(ish) reflexes, feet, hands, and against the right opponent, can turn out the lights with one shot. Furthermore, he seems to take a decent punch. To be clear: He’s not invincible – and surely wouldn’t have lasted a solitary round with peak Tyson – but he’s far from the complete novice he was five years ago.
6. Mike Tyson started to decline in 1989
Mike Tyson started to erode, not in the last decade or the one before that, or even the one before that, but the one before that. And yes, he was still a heck of a heavyweight in the 1990s, but I’m not actually certain that the Tyson who lost to Kevin McBride in 2005 would have beaten Jake Paul. Tyson looked shot to bits 19 years ago, before Anthony Joshua and Deontay Wilder had tried on boxing gloves, before Tyson Fury had turned professional, before Vitali Klitschko came back and retired again, and before Wladimir Klitschko went on a lengthy run at the top only to be thwarted by losses to Fury and Joshua. Though I can’t think of any fighters off the top of my head who came back 19 years after looking shot to bits to back up my theory, I’d take a wild guess that ageing by 19 years doesn’t reverse the ageing process. If he looked as good as new, or even as good as he was in 2005, we’d have seen clips of him training that lasted longer than three seconds.
7. History lessons
Think of the greatest ‘old’ fighters in history, like Bernard Hopkins and Archie Moore. Think about their rapidly declining form, dulled reflexes and faded punch resistance in their late 40s then imagine them fighting at the age of 58.
8. Mike Tyson couldn’t put a dent in Roy Jones Jr. in 2020
Even a 51-year-old Jones was immeasurably cuter than Jake Paul will ever be – but the young upstart’s fitness levels will surely be significantly greater. Though willing and occasionally bobbing and weaving, Tyson, 54, landed only one shot to the head that could be described as a clean blow and Jones – knocked out five times when his career was winding down – didn’t even flinch. This all took place three years and 10 months ago which, for context, is longer than the three years and three months that elapsed between Mike Tyson roasting Trevor Berbick and losing to James “Buster” Douglas.
9. Logan Paul gave Floyd Mayweather Jr. problems
Okay, no he didn’t, but the decline in Floyd, who is 47 years old, is obvious and he’s been training every single day since he was a kid. Moreover, Mayweather knows he can’t do the things that he used to do otherwise he’d come back and have an outrageously lucrative licensed fight. He’s taken the odd punch and struggled to land many of note – and this is Mayweather, a defensive genius who has treated his body like a temple, we’re talking about.
10. The rounds are scheduled for two minutes
The concessions that are being made by the Texas commission should tell us all we need to know about why this should not be allowed to happen. Are the two-minute rounds designed for Paul’s benefit, maybe because he’s new to the sport? No, he’s answered the bell 52 times as a professional boxer and, on each occasion, the round was scheduled for three minutes. Are they wearing 14-ounce gloves because someone is concerned about 27-year-old Paul getting hurt? Not a chance. They’re fearful that Tyson’s 58-year-old brain won’t react well when it starts bouncing off the inside of his skull.
Which brings us to what should be the only conclusion when examining why Tyson won’t win: He doesn’t fight. With 10 weeks to go – and stacks of tickets still available in every part of the AT&T Stadium – don’t rule that out.
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