Edgar Berlanga’s best chance of upsetting Canelo Alvarez on Saturday night is to blitz him in the first quarter of the fight, unloading on him with full salvos and looking for a fast knockout on September 14th at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
The Blitz: Berlanga’s Early Assault
Berlanga (22-0, 17 KOs) is in his best element when he goes after his opponents right away, as that’s when his power is at full capacity. He knocked out his first 16 opponents in the first round by going full throttle from 2016 to 2020.
Granted, those fighters were cabdriver quality, but knocking out anyone that fast shows the kind of punching power that Berlanga possesses.
Moreover, like David Benavidez, Berlanga is another example of a fighter who melts down huge amounts of weight to compete at 168 and arguably should be fighting at 175 against fighters his size.
A Light Heavyweight in Disguise
Berlanga is still young enough to lose the water-weight to get to super middleweight without it draining his strength. So, on Saturday, Canelo will essentially be fighting a light heavyweight with the power of a fighter from the 175-lb division.
That’s another reason Berlanga has a shot of winning this fight if he can land his powerful shots in rounds one through three. If he can’t knock out Canelo during the fight, his chances of winning drop to nothing.
“It depends on how precise Berlanga is with his punching power. If he’s precise with his punches, he’ll make Canelo keep his hands at home. He won’t be willing to counter,” said Roy Jones Jr. to the Fight Hub TV YouTube channel, discussing the Canelo Alvarez vs. Edgar Berlanga fight on Saturday.
Precision is Key
Berlanga is never precise with his punches. That’s the problem. He throws winging shots with full power on them, and many of them are wide of the mark, even against the C and D-level fighters that his promoters at Matchroom and Top Rank have fed him. He’s wild with punches, looking to score quick knockouts, and that approach will leave many openings for Canelo if his accuracy hasn’t improved.
If Berlanga is accurate with his shots, Canelo is going to be in a world of hurt on Saturday because this guy is a true light heavyweight with power that it up there with the top guys in the 175-lb division. He doesn’t have Artur Beterbiev-type power, but he’s close.
“If they’re not precise punches, then Canelo is going to come between,” said Roy Jr about Berlanga. “That will be determined by how good Berlanga’s punches are. For three or four rounds, it’s going to be fantastic if it lasts that long.”
Berlanga is going to be a headache for Canelo through three rounds, and it won’t be a shock if he knocks out the Mexican star or puts him down two or three times. He’s got to be accurate with his shots, though, because if he’s missing, like we’ve seen in the past, Canelo will piece him up.
Can Berlanga Weather the Storm?
“I don’t know if Berlanga can take Canelo’s punch. I think Canelo can take his because I’ve yet to see Canelo truly hurt in a fight,” said Jones Jr. “It shouldn’t be a big upset [if Berlanga wins] because when a guy goes 16 and 0 with all first-round knockouts, that tells you he has exceptional punching power, and if he catches anyone right at any time, he can take them out.”
The uppercut that Canelo dropped Jaime Munguia with in the fourth round in their fight on May 4th this year would likely knock out Berlanga. Even if he got up from that shot, Canelo would quickly finish him off. Surprisingly, Munguia survived getting dropped by that shot because he was badly hurt and would have been easily finished off if Canelo had poured it on.
“That’s why he has to use that coming into this fight. If he doesn’t use that, what good does that do you to build that reputation? I think he gives a better fight than Munguia did, but except down the stretch, I don’t know if it’ll be as good a fight because I don’t know if he can withstand the stuff that Munguia withstood and kept coming at. I don’t know if Berlanga can take that kind of punishment and keep going,” said Roy Jr.
Berlanga has already shown in his fights against Roamer Alexis Angulo, Steve Rolls, and Marcelo Esteban Coceres that he doesn’t have a good gas tank to keep fighting hard during the later rounds. He’s a very average fighter in the championship rounds, looking more C-level than A-level in quality. If Berlanga is still around by that point in the fight, Canelo will wipe him out.
You can’t run from @EdgarBerlangaJr once he has you hurt. He is the definition of punching through the guard.
Order the #CaneloBerlanga fight today: https://t.co/eGeOKgB6pI pic.twitter.com/oFjkZwIzHc
— Premier Boxing Champions (@premierboxing) September 7, 2024
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