When attempting to predict the outcome of the Artur Beterbiev-Dmitry Bivol showdown, which takes place on Saturday night in Saudi Arabia, two things quickly become clear: I am beyond excited and I don’t know – just like nobody possibly can at this stage – who’s going to win.
It’s not so much that it’s difficult to imagine one and not the other with their hands raised, because we’ve seen both triumph a cumulative 43 times, it’s more that it’s a stretch to envision either of these fine light heavyweights actually losing a fight. However much I try, I cannot picture a concussed Beterbiev being rescued by the referee or even being bewitched and outboxed conclusively. Nor can I close my eyes and imagine the always classy Bivol, after sampling one too many right hands, sporting the bedraggled expression of a defeated man. No, we’re so conditioned to seeing Beterbiev and Bivol win, and win handsomely, that it will be quite the sight when – if – one of them is defeated.
If we presume for now that it doesn’t end in a draw, witnessing one of these two beaten for the first time might prove just as memorable as the punches that caused their fall from grace. When one thinks of Frazier beating Ali, for example, the latter tumbling to the canvas in round 15 is every bit as cinematic as the punch that put him there. And when you reflect on Usyk versus Fury, it’s not the Ukrainian’s craft and guile that springs to mind but the Englishman drunkenly tottering from boundary to boundary in the ninth round. The winner here, then, could be about to produce the most spectacular performance of their lives, simply by making a perceived superman look human.
That it’s such a hard fight to call only underlines the brilliance of the matchup. The winner – again, presuming there is one – becomes the best light heavyweight in the world, bar none, so don’t let any of the sanctioning bodies tell you otherwise should they move to strip titles down the line.
But let’s not dwell on such trivialities here. This is arguably the best fight to make in the sport and that’s not because there are four alphabet straps on the line. It’s purely because of the fighters and their quality.
When looking solely at accomplishments in the professional code, Beterbiev can boast a juicier highlight reel and likely edges Bivol in the consistency stakes. It could also be argued that the Russian-born Canadian resident, 20-0 (20 KOs), has fought overall better opposition, even if his record lacks the scalp of someone like Canelo Alvarez, who was outpointed by Bivol in 2022.
Though aficionados had long been aware of the menacing Beterbiev thanks to his amateur exploits, it was his step-up in September 2014, when he demolished former belt-holder Tavoris Cloud in two rounds a mere 15 months after turning over, that really announced his arrival on the light heavyweight landscape. Three years later he won his first title, beating Enrico Koelling in 12 rounds, before surviving a knockdown to fold Callum Johnson inside four. A five-round victory over Radivoje Kalajdzic followed before Beterbiev aced what still might be his toughest test in October 2019 when he broke down Oleksandr Gvozdyk in 10. Since then, the most noteworthy victories came against Marcus Browne (surviving a grotesque cut to win via KO 9), Joe Smith Jnr (TKO 2), Anthony Yarde (TKO 8) and, most recently, Callum Smith (TKO 7) in January this year. The cumulative record of Beterbiev’s foes at world title level is an impressive 204-10-1 and only Johnson (briefly), Gvozdyk and Yarde had any real success.
Beterbiev’s tendency to break the spirit, skin and bones of his rivals evidences his strength of punch yet it’s also important to note that – unlike some who become reliant on their power – his boxing IQ is surprisingly high, particularly when one considers he has no interest in watching or talking about fights in which he’s not involved. Beterbiev is a master boxer, albeit not remotely a boxing fan, and his judgement of distance, the calm head in battle, and the timing and selection of the blows he throws speaks to his irrepressible desire to improve. However, when his team, which includes top brains like Marc Ramsay and John Scully, are talking in the gym about boxing more generally – like, for example, the big fight that occurred the previous weekend – Beterbiev will shrug and walk away. He only has interest if what they discuss pertains to him.
It should be no surprise, then, that when this contest was announced it was Beterbiev, the all-round master of his trade, who opened as the favourite in the eyes of the bookmakers. Yet it now seems likely that Bivol, come the opening bell, will be the fighter who is the shorter price to win.
Why has Beterbiev gone from favourite to underdog? It can likely be explained by the growing list of injuries suffered in recent years. This showdown was originally scheduled for June 1 only for it to be postponed after Beterbiev suffered a ruptured meniscus. He’s also endured injuries to his ribs and has undergone surgeries to repair his knee and shoulder, leading to his bouts with Yarde and Smith also being pushed back. At 39 he is six years older than Bivol and logic dictates that his body is starting to break down. When that inevitable process begins in an athlete it’s an impossible one to reverse. He’s suffered cuts in the past, too, and if one of the two bodies is to malfunction in battle, it seems likelier that it’s the older man’s.
That said, if people are picking Bivol to win purely because they presume this is the fight when Beterbiev will creak and crack, they are doing so without seeing any evidence of such in his most recent performances in the ring. Beterbiev was brutally effective when walking through Smith and though Yarde managed to push back Artur on occasion, the champion ended the fight when he realized he needed to find an extra gear to quieten his brave opponent.
But what Beterbiev will meet in Bivol is something different entirely. The 33-year-old, born in Krygzstan and based in Indio, CA, is a patient, sharp-shooting stylist who won’t be rushed nor feel overawed. A Russian amateur champion in the vest, Bivol can, like his opponent, boast many years of education in the fistic arts. Furthermore, the manner he handled Canelo two years ago should be a cause for concern because what Bivol does so well is dictate the pace, often slowing down his rivals and drawing mistakes when they attempt to hasten their work.
The other standout success on his 23-0 (12 KOs) record came against the highly regarded (and 44-0) Gilberto Ramirez in November 2022 and Bivol dominated to such an extent that everyone thought they’d been overrating “Zurdo” all along. Furthermore, and perhaps crucially in a contest as evenly poised as this, there is a feeling that we’re still to see the best of Bivol.
It’s true, however, that Bivol has looked ordinary on occasion. A specialist in winning over the 36-minute distance, he lost some rounds to Craig Richards when they clashed in 2021, Lyndon Arthur managed to last 12 two years later and there was a sense that Bivol merely coasted through points victories over the likes of Jean Pascal, Umar Salamov and Isaac Chilemba. One might also want to reference the moment when he was stunned and straightened against Joe Smith Jnr in 2019 as a reason why, when faced with someone like Beterbiev, he will eventually succumb.
Yet Bivol, even when not in full flow, always appears in complete control of both his own mind and his opponent. Consequently, so content is he inside that squared circle, if he doesn’t need to overexert himself, he won’t. In his most recent outing in June, Bivol thrashed Malik Zinad inside six rounds and we should remember that though he’s not a famed hitter, he can bang with authority and accuracy to both head and body, always with fluency and confidence.
Bivol will need to be alert for 36 minutes and, though he’s elusive, he’s not a defensive wizard with a Matrix-mode; he does get hit. But he knows how to get hit, to deflect, to slip, to make the target small and how to then take advantage when his opponents grow too ambitious. His feet are excellent and, when faced with Beterbiev, he won’t take too many chances without being afraid to take necessary ones. Though only a fool would stand in front of Beterbiev and ask him to do his worst, Bivol will nonetheless know that to win, he must do more than stay out of harm’s way. Therein lies the key to victory for Beterbiev – when Bivol is at his bravest, Beterbiev must be at his fearsome, intelligent best.
It’s hard to envision either boxer dominating, however. Therefore, that draw should not be discounted and is perfectly feasible. After all, it’s been a while since we had one in a fight as big as this and purely by the laws of chance in a two-horse race, one could say we’re overdue a draw in a contest that is almost impossible to call – and one where it’s far easier to envision both fighters having periods of success than it is to visualize either man crumbling or being conclusively defeated.
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