LAS VEGAS – The expected, or the unexpected?
Canelo Alvarez’s return to T-Mobile Arena on a Mexican Independence weekend arrives Saturday night against a power-punching newcomer to the world of big-time boxing.
Yes, Brooklyn’s Edgar Berlanga Jr. (22-0, 17 KOs) possesses a hellacious punch. But nobody has ever knocked down Alvarez (61-2-2, 39 KOs) in 65 prior fights and 496 prior rounds.
Sure, Berlanga, 27, is speaking about employing a developed jab, but is it effective enough to defeat a four-division champion who’s already found ways to defuse the same weapon thrown at him by longtime world champions Gennadiy Golovkin and Sergey Kovalev.
We think we know how this will end, with Alvarez standing tall as a -1600 betting favorite. But we won’t know until the action commences.
So, as the minutes tick to that first bell, ProBox TV’s Chris Algieri and Paulie Malignaggi spent time on a Friday “Top Stories” episode considering this clash one last time.
“Canelo’s got to be Canelo … super calculated,” Algieri said. “He’s getting less active as the years go on, but his precision is going up. He’s picking his punches, setting them up really well. He has such a deep bag of tricks and is so calm.”
Algieri reminded that we just saw that version of Alvarez, 34, in May, when he posted a fourth-round knockdown of then-unbeaten former 154-pound champion Jaime Munguia and then cruised to a unanimous-decision victory.
“You could see Canelo analyzing the data, knowing he can. Taking these guys (Munguia and Berlanga) into deep waters is a good stance for him in this fight to be successful,” Algieri said. “You’ve got a guy in Berlanga in his first mega-fight … I think Canelo will try to get that 40th knockout.”
Malignaggi said he’ll be watching how Alvarez seeks to lean into the pre-established advantages of observing how a big-fight newcomer seeks to overdo it early.
“You stress (the challenger) with pressure and get to the body at close range … with the crowd going crazy (supporting Canelo), it’s a big psychological destruction,” Malignaggi said. “You’ve got to be mentally very strong to deal with that.”
Is Berlanga?
Yes, his power is immense enough to have produced 16 first-round knockouts in his first 16 bouts.
But this assignment calls for a greater portfolio.
Standing five inches taller than Alvarez with nearly three more inches of reach, Berlanga has spoken of showcasing the jab.
“I’ve never seen him use it,” Malignaggi said. “Yes, it’s a deciding factor in dictating the fight. Does Berlanga have a deceptive enough jab? Can you offset that positioning power of Canelo? I’m not quite sure.
“He can leverage proper power with the jab, land (power shots) by disguising them with the jab, but we’re talking about the boxing we haven’t seen Berlanga do.”
Berlanga has spoken enthusiastically about his belief that fate has put him in this position for a reason – to shock the world.
“Berlanga has to gain Canelo’s respect by making him feel his power,” Algieri said.
Yes, Berlanga’s naturally bigger than Munguia, but the fact that lethal-punching Golovkin, the “Krusher” Kovalev and even unbeaten light-heavyweight champion Dmitrii Bivol couldn’t drop Alvarez makes this puncher’s-chance mission look like an ill-fated pursuit.
“I don’t know that he’s got that in his arsenal,” Malignaggi said.
What we do know is that we will know that and more by the end of Saturday night.
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