By Frank Bay: The masses are clamoring for boxing’s mega event of the year, Canelo Alvarez vs. Terence ‘Bud’ Crawford, in 2025. Well, not so much. Boxing hasn’t had a legitimate major crossover event since the recent Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson circus dud and 2023’s Gervonta ‘Tank’ Davis vs. Ryan Garcia mega-event, which was rumored to have hit the one million PPV buys tipping point. And let’s be honest, Davis vs. Garcia wasn’t a mega event like the last true crossover event with the mass appeal of Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao.
Canelo is the last of the PPV boxing stars as the model for success changes due to streaming, such as the Paul vs. Tyson event on Netflix. But the last time Alvarez hit the one million threshold was against Gennadiy Golovkin in their 2nd fight during the HBO days in 2018. Since then, Alvarez’s numbers have declined, and he is only hitting around the 500k to 650k reported PPVs. It’s only getting close to 1 million, with Caleb Plant at 800k in 2021, which seems about 20 years ago, considering the landscape of boxing now with no more Showtime or HBO.
The fighting is being discussed well, and the fight Bud and Turki Al-Shiekh are begging for is Canelo Alvarez. But honestly, it is not a mega event that would hit the gold standard of 1 million, seeing as how every Bud PPV has flopped sans Errol Spence, with the reported Israil Madrimov fight doing a paltry 150k PPV buys. Turki took a blood bath at the event, allegedly losing millions even with a stacked undercard and a performance by Eminem. The reality is that the fight is not a cross-over fight and would likely do 750k PPV max. The only other reality is a David Benavidez fight, which would likely do 800k max as it is not a major cross-over event, seeing as Benny’s PPVs have flopped big time, allegedly doing 75k for his fight with Demetrius Andrade on November 25, 2023.
The truth is, Alvarez is in no man’s land, and his options as a Dmitry Bivol or Artur Beterbiev opponent do less than his Edgar Berlanga fight because, on the state side, Berlanga was a bigger name. I cannot offer a sound prediction as the future looks bleak for Alvarez and his choice of 2025 opponents. A Jake Paul fight would be the direction since it could contend for the Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao crossover fight boxing desperately needs. Alvarez’s current 168-lb division has decent fighters but no star appeal in Christian Mbilli, Diego Pacheco, and unknowns in Osleys Iglesias and William Scull. Nobody would be willing to pay Alvarez north of $35 million to fight on PPV. If we are to get a Bud vs Canelo MEGA fight, Turki Al-Shiekh will need to pony up $100 million at least to get the American market’s interest. If anyone can, it’s Turki.
Moving on to the A-list of Boxing stars, we have ‘Monster’ Naoya Inoue and Tank Davis. The sad truth is that I don’t see any name opponent except for each other to become a cross-over star truly. Inoue, boxing’s #1 fighter, has reached his limit. Maybe Top Rank envisioned another meteoric rise like Pac-Man because Inoue has the Asian market like Manny did, but he cannot blitz through weight class after weight class, which was never fair to expect of him. But if Inoue is to have a breakthrough fight, it is one Tank Davis, which exists in fantasy land. Inoue has good opponents in front of him at 126 with Bruce Carrington and Rafael ‘El Divino’ Espinoza. Still, none of those fights will get the American media in a fury like Manny was with his name rivals Erik Morales and Marco Antonio Barrera. Look for Inoue to play it safe in 2025 and set up an all-land of the rising sun showdown with Junto Nakatani.
Last and certainly least is Tank Davis, who did nothing to take his throne as the face of boxing after the major success of his Ryan Garcia affair. Beating Frank Martin did nothing for him after losing steam and taking a year off after he was on a heater, with that fight reportedly doing less than 200k PPV. With Vasily Lomachenko choosing to sit and fix his back, Davis was left without a viable name to sell his PPV event. He decided to select Lamont Roach, and now, with multiple cancellations, people wonder if the fight will even happen in 2025. Davis must know he needs a big name in 2025, but there are not many except the man he already beat, Ryan Garcia. The reality is the other names are not stars like Ryan. Shakur Stevenson, Teofimo Lopez, and Devin Haney are all damaged goods. With a rumored Manny Pacquiao set to return, the obvious mega cross-over event would be a Pac-Man vs. Tank Davis fight. A Manny vs. Davis fight would put Davis over Alvarez, but something tells me Davis and his handlers want to play it safe as they have always done. Noting ventured, nothing lost.
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