Carlos Adames vs Hamzah Sheeraz: who wins and why?

Despite being the WBC middleweight title holder, Carlos Adames enters as the underdog against the unbeaten challenger Hamzah Sheeraz on Saturday night at the Venue Riyadh Season in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

Their bout will prove defining for both and, potentially, represent a rebirth of the middleweight division that has become rather sleepy since the departure of Saul “Canelo” Alvarez and Gennadiy Golovkin. 

Adames has made only one title defense since being elevated from interim title holder to outright title holder, after Jermall Charlo was stripped of the title in May. He has long flown under the radar. Adames, a 30 year old from the Dominican Republic, turned professional in 2015. He mostly fought on smaller promotions until signing with Top Rank in 2018, but he lost a vacant interim WBA junior-middleweight title fight to Patrick Teixeira in 2019. Since that loss, he has won six straight fights – including a win over Sergiy Derevyanchenko and a stoppage of Juan Macias Montiel to claim the interim WBC title.

Sheeraz, the 25 year old from the United Kingdom, turned professional in 2017, but has slowly started to feel like a potential star. Since making the leap to the elite in the division, he has stopped 15 straight opponent – his three most recent opponents, Tyler Denny, Austin “Ammo” Williams and Liam Williams, all had some momentum behind them at the time of his wins. 

Saturday’s fight can establish the winner alongside the unified titleholder Janibek Alimkhanuly and WBA titleholder Erislandy Lara at the very top of their division. 

Adames is a huge puncher, but has also been seen choosing to box and be patient. He has also had fights in which he puts a lot of pressure on his opponents, losing rounds, but breaking them down with his pressure. Adames’ best path to victory is to weaponize his versatility. He is capable of being unpredictable, which could benefit him. Though Adames is going to have to land a telling blow that hurts Sheeraz at some point to win, he will have to get Sheeraz out of his comfort zone. “Ammo” Williams landed a big left hand on Sheeraz in the second round of their fight, which could be something Adames’ might look to take advantage of as well. Disrupting the rhythm and timing of Sheeraz, while making Sheeraz respect and anticipate the big shots Adames can throw, can win the fight. 

For Sheeraz, the most important thing is to weaponize his speed. He fights with a high guard, but slowly comes forward, looking to land power shots and break his opponent down. Sheeraz will need to look to land big punches to wear down Adames, but avoid getting hit with a huge punch; Adames is the biggest puncher he has ever faced. The longer the fight goes, the more it favors Sheeraz. 

Boxing is often about momentum. When your career is advancing, it feels like you are unstoppable. When your career stalls, it is hard to right the ship – only the great ones seem to reinvent themselves. Everything about this match-up screams of a changing of the guard at middleweight with Sheeraz, the exciting up-and-comer with an undefeated record of 21-0 (17 KOs), possibly becoming a belt holder. His knockout streak is impressive and without a title he is entering the fight as an uncrowned champion. Adames, 24-1 (18 KOs), will have to turn back time or land a punch that dramatically changes the fight early, or else that word, momentum, might be the story. The momentum of a seemingly unstoppable and focused Sheeraz means he may well walk down Adames in the later rounds.