I’m very excited about Daniel Dubois-Anthony Joshua. It’s a fight between two heavyweights who can punch, and who can be vulnerable.
It’s at Wembley Stadium, and approaching 100,000 people are expected to attend. It’s a classic, fun heavyweight fight that reminds me of the heavyweight division of the 1990s.
When in August 2023 Dubois lost to Oleksandr Usyk, it was hard to imagine him entering an occasion like Saturday’s. We’ve seen a major change in his psychology since then. He overcame Jarrell Miller, after Miller – who might be the best trash talker in the sport – abused him all week. His next opponent, Filip Hrgovic, also really talked down to him, and he overcame that and, in turn, broke Hrgovic the bully.
I was very impressed with both performances – and I’d picked Miller and Hrgovic to win, and believe that the powers that be wanted Miller and Hrgovic to win so that they could be matched with Joshua. It’s really difficult to disrupt plans like those twice in succession.
Physically, I didn’t believe anything was missing anyway – that’s why there was a sense of excitement around Dubois early in his career. But the psychology was lacking – as was shown when he succumbed in the moment against Usyk.
I agree with those saying that Dubois has heavier hands than Joshua, but that doesn’t mean he’s the better puncher. He has more raw power, and to the extent he could be off-balance and land a right hand that knocks his opponent out. Joshua, however, has the perfect blend of speed, technique and power – he’s the best knockout puncher in the world.
I also agree that Dubois has the better punch resistance. Hrgovic, who also has power, landed some big punches, and Dubois very impressively took them.
Where Dubois defeated Miller and Hrgovic, Joshua stopped Otto Wallin and Francis Ngannou, and as a consequence we’re being told that the confidence that was lacking against Jermaine Franklin and Robert Helenius has been restored. Ben Davison, his trainer for those two fights, appears to have helped him rediscover his self-belief. The question is how real that confidence will prove against another world-class puncher – which neither Wallin or Ngannou are. It also strikes me as relevant that Dubois is also British, the underdog, and promoted by Queensberry Promotions – the rivals of Joshua’s promoters Matchroom.
My belief is that if, like against Franklin, Joshua struggles to hurt Dubois early, we may see him change his approach. When that first hook from Dubois goes whizzing past his face, and he senses how powerfully Dubois can punch, if Joshua responds by deciding he’s not willing to risk being hit to land the punches capable of stopping Dubois, we’re going to see a very different fight. If he decides he wants to be cautious, his jab is good enough to keep Dubois at range. Those opening rounds will be particularly intriguing – and could even feature one or the other being stopped.
Joshua being as intimidating as he is – from Dubois’ perspective, on paper at least – will also test Dubois early. He started slowly against Miller and Hrgovic, but needs to fight an aggressive, disciplined fight from the opening bell – which we’ve not yet seen him do.
Joshua’s had some of his greatest nights at Wembley – he retired Wladimir Klitschko, and stopped Alexander Povetkin. The familiarity will matter for him in the same way it matters to so many other fighters who relish fighting wherever they consider home. Mindset, at the highest level, is everything – especially for someone like Joshua. By comparison, it’ll be foreign to Dubois. If Joshua wins there’s also the possibility of him finally fighting Tyson Fury, but I sense he’s fully focused on Dubois.
It took seeing them together to realise how much bigger Joshua is than Dubois. Joshua’s a modern-day super heavyweight – it’s just that he’s so athletic that that’s often forgotten.
His technical superiority and experience means he has to be considered the favourite – I expect him to win via stoppage in the late rounds, after coming through some difficult periods.
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