In this week’s can’t miss mailbag, Stephen “Breadman” Edwards weighs up this weekend’s big fight between Dmitry Bivol and Artur Beterbiev, discusses how geography might affect a fighter, answers more questions on Ryan Garcia and he ponders Danny Garcia’s Hall of Fame credentials.
Hello Breadman,
I agree with you that checking boxes isn’t the way to breakdown a fight, it doesn’t work like that. I haven’t actually broken the fight down yet. I would have to watch more tape for that, it was just what I see on a quick look. I wasn’t trying to influence you either, I was simply interested in if you are still going with Beterbiev as the fight gets closer. You made a point that I’ve been thinking about. I’ve been wondering if Bivol uses a high guard defence to absorb shots in every fight, because if he does that is my only doubt in picking him right now – that he might not be able to absorb the punches on his guard the way he did against Canelo. Beterbiev is very efficient with his hands and his feet, almost constantly in range touching you as you said. I think Bivol’s feet are faster, Beterbiev’s are more educated, although Bivol may be the best at judging distance in boxing right now. If Bivol can’t push Beterbiev back, the size of the ring they are fighting in becomes very important in this fight. I also feel Beterbiev tries to rest on the front foot while applying pressure and gets away with it because guys become intimidated by his power, and this is actually a reason I like Bivol in the fight. Against Canelo, who does the same thing, everytime that Canelo was trying to rest Bivol would very deliberately unload on him and I suspect he will try the same tactic against Beterbiev. If this happens, my hunch is that Beterbiev’s stamina isn’t going to look the same as it has in other fights. With no disrespect to Beterbiev’s prior opponents, this is the first time that he will be facing a top, A-level fighter in their prime. From what I’ve seen Beterbiev gets hit too easily at times when he throws and afterwards, which is bad news with how fast Bivol’s hands are and how spiteful he can be when he wants to in combination. I do expect Bivol to hurt him at some point in the fight with something he doesn’t see/can’t react to, probably from a catch and shoot type situation. If there is a knockout I honestly think it will be Bivol scoring it, even via injury retirement or by cuts. I had the exact same questions about Bivol’s chin as you do, but I feel that his chin is better than Beterbiev’s after seeing the Canelo fight and the punch Smith hit him with at the bell in round 10. I don’t believe that Beterbiev would have shrugged that same behind the ear punch off behind the ear from a guy in Joe Smith Jr. who maybe actually hits harder than Beterbiev for one shot.
It seems to me more like Bivol doesn’t commit unless he’s safe, he never gets greedy (another big plus in this matchup), and will even stop an attack midway through if he senses danger. He’s cautious like a bird, if that makes sense. So I can even see a boring fight playing out, because Bivol tends not to commit if he knows you’re trying to time him. To the point about the amateurs supposedly Beterbiev lost twice to Usyk (I haven’t checked), but it also works in vice-versa Bivol will have fought many people with Beterbiev’s style also. Maybe you were implying this when you said who is more effective at what they do. To the point about discipline, I think there is a slight difference between the two on what I’ve looked at so far. Both are high IQ fighters, but the difference I noticed is Bivol always remains calm. Beterbiev has a little bit of that devil in him where if you hurt him he is willing to exchange like a savage. It will be extremely interesting to see how he reacts if Bivol hurts him, and vice-versa. My hunch is Bivol is even more disciplined than Beterbiev admittedly is.
I get what you are saying about Marciano, but he was maybe a one of one and also had that one hitter quitter that I’ve not seen from Beterbiev so far – and it was against better competition.
You don’t see Beterbiev hitting people with that jolt you get that goes up your arm when you knock someone out, it’s more of a bludgeoning with him. I’m also aware that Beterbiev made a promise to his father who passed away when he was 16, and on the other side have seen Bivol talking about working for this moment since he was a child. In terms of intangibles, I’m not seeing an advantage for either guy so for me we have to rely on certain physical and stylistic realities in this fight. Beterbiev has a 20 wins 20 knockouts bogeyman thing going on that I think is influencing a lot of people (and the odds) but there isn’t a bogeyman in boxing that didn’t get beat eventually so I’m not interested in his reputation in that sense. To some extent that is marketing and matchmaking (and superstition). How did Bruce Lee beat Han in Enter The Dragon? He destroyed the image of the opponent…
Whether Bivol is the guy to beat him, it is probably going to come down to how they feel about each other’s power in the end. If Bivol gets comfortable I think the fights over he’ll be too fast and too active. If he’s not comfortable with it then it looks more like a typical Beterbiev fight that we’ve seen 20 times before – yet is one that Bivol still has a chance to finesse or dog out whereas if Bivol is outboxing Beterbiev and not letting him impose his will then there is nothing he can do.
It’s difficult for me to get past Bivol has more ability to not give Beterbiev what he wants than Beterbiev does to not give Bivol what Bivol wants, both based on style, personality (or tendencies and EQ as you say), and athleticism/youth/freshness. You are right not to let people change your pick. I made that mistake with a recent fight I won’t say which one because I don’t want to look like Captain Hindsight as we say in the UK. Much Respect
Bread’s Response: Here is how I see the fight. I have been watching Beterbiev because I noticed he had different level performances throughout his career. With Callum Smith being his best performance in my opinion. There were times where he took a little long to warm up. Then in the Smith fight, he got right to it. Executed his gameplan and took Smith apart.
I believe that the Beterbiev that showed up for Smith has to show up for this fight or he will lose and we all know it’s hard to have back to back career best performances. So that’s in Bivol’s favor.
Bivol is pretty much the same every fight. Pendulum rhythm. A good jab. Crisp but loose straight punches. And the same stoic, conservative approach.
I think the key to this fight is how soon Beterbiev warms up to the task. And can he use his jab to offset Bivol’s rhythm. I believe he can but I don’t know he can. Both have subtle brilliance. But Beterbiev’s success will depend on his Alpha Male energy in my opinion. Bivol doesn’t seem to care about harming Beterbiev. He doesn’t seem to view him as anything else except an opponent. Beterbiev seems to want to hurt everyone. I believe he has to keep Bivol in his place very early.
Beterbiev doesn’t have to drop him or stop him early. But he has to make Bivol feel his presence. If Bivol gets comfortable like he did vs Canelo, he wins.
When I look at the Anthony Yarde fight, I do see a space where Bivol can win a decision. Beterbiev is great but he’s not an invincible force. He’s more of a destructive force.
My guess is Beterbiev is too mean of a human being for Bivol. He starts off fast with a good jab. The fight is evenly contested on the outside but Beterbiev is putting doubt in Bivol’s mind on the inside of his soul. As the fight goes on, Bivol has a choice. He can go out on his shield or he can stay conservative and lose a decision. Yes, I believe Beterbiev can win a decision in this fight. Similar to the one Chavez won against Camacho. My pick is Beterbiev and I’m not ruling out a decision.
Hi Bread,
Hope you’re doing well. I’m writing in because of something that happened that people seem to have swept under the rug. When Ryan Garcia tested positive, him and his team blamed a supplement that they took, saying that the batch was tested and found to have contained ostarine, which for all we know is true. However, the company that manufactured the supplement tested the same lot number and found no ostarine, and even claim that the amount they are claiming was in the tainted supplement wouldn’t explain the amount in his system. It seems like the most obvious explanation is that Garcia (or somebody on his team) tainted his own supplements and sent them in for testing to get an excuse, and when the company responded, because Ryan has a much bigger social media presence, it went unnoticed. It’s one thing for the fans to not notice, but the commissions definitely should and clearly don’t want to. What do you think? All the info can be found here: https://vitaminretailer.com/nutrabio-responds-to-boxers-allegations-of-banned-substance-in-product/ – NutraBio Responds to Boxer’s Allegations of Banned Substance in Product – Vitamin Retailer MagazineProfessional boxer Ryan Garcia is accusing NutraBio Labs of selling contaminated products containing the banned substance ostarine.vitaminretailer.comAll the best, Sam
Bread’s Response: I noticed it too. I didn’t say much when Garcia tested positive because I wanted to allow due process to take place and allow Garcia to defend himself. I heard several different theories that Garcia came up with, from the Ashwaganda, to the supplement you speak of, to VADA and Victor Conte setting him up, to a trainer giving him something he wasn’t supposed to, but nothing was ever substantiated. All I can say is this is boxing. And this is a business.
Sup Breadman,
First off thanks for answering my questions, I’m a huge boxing fan and longtime reader of your mailbag, please keep them coming! From attending a few amateur tournaments recently, it seems like fundamentals aren’t prioritized as they once were. I noticed kids hardly using a jab and or having “educated feet”.
Seems like they all wanted to fight out of a shoulder roll and pop off fancy looking combinations with little to no setup? Now this might not be the case everywhere, simply an observation I made from a small sample size, but it got me thinking is this simply a “change of approach” as I’ve read you mention before. Dare I say, this a regression of the sport and/or art of boxing? For context, I was in the Dallas area, I’m sure you’ve been to amateur events all over the country. Do you think this varies from region to region as far as boxing skills/talent or training methods? I kind of compare it to basketball where nowadays hoopers are more focused on the idea of having a “bag” fancy crossover dribbles and stepbacks instead of focusing on strong fundamentals and teamplay. Hope you and yours are doing well, thank you.
Bread’s Response: I think trainers are starting fighters out with things that are more “attractive” to fighters. Like fancy padwork. Whereas fighters longer ago started out with footwork because a structure is built from the bottom up, not from the top to the bottom. And they didn’t throw fancy combinations at first. They used a jab. A simple jab.
So, yes, the foundation is different in most places. But to answer you directly, different regions produce a different level of fighters. Overall Philadelphia, Detroit, Ohio, LA and the DMV produce the better fighters overall in the US. It doesn’t mean other places can’t produce excellent fighters. But overall if you take a large sample size of fighters, you will see those are the places that a great deal of the top amateurs and top pros come out of. It’s not a coincidence.
Hey Bread, Hope you’re well. Is Beterbiev-Bivol slightly more significant than Spence Jr-Crawford? I’m not saying bigger, I mean erasing doubts about who’s behind? At 147 one could argue Ennis could have beaten them both. At 175 I feel like the winner would be a clear number one. Unless you see Benavidez (or Morrell) as the favorite for the next one. What do you think of Sheeraz? He surely gets the push but he seems like the goods. Do you like him vs the Kazak the WBO ordered? Ennis needs to keep building his profile and fight often ala GGG. But down the line, in one or two years top, who are the two guys who would represent the biggest threats and most credible opponents? As with GGG vs Canelo down the line, would you give more than a 20% shot to Teo vs Crawford? Do you think Tim is the guy for Ennis at 154? I feel like now Benavidez vs Morrell is a 60/40 fight.
Best match up for a crown at 154 for the Spence return? Cheers, Diego
Bread’s Response: I think Beterbiev vs Bivol is 1 of the 5 biggest/best light heavyweight title fights of MY lifetime. Spinks vs Qawi, Hopkins vs Calzaghe, Ward vs Kovalev and Jones vs Tarver II. This is a huge fight!!!
I think Sheeraz is really good. But I don’t know how good just yet. I don’t rush to judgement with fighters. But from what I see he’s the goods. I don’t know enough to say if he can beat Janibek. But I suspect he’s even money with Janibek and Adames right now. But again, I want to see more.
The biggest threats for Ennis, in the future…..Hmmmm……It’s tough to say. But if I had to guess, I will say Charles Conwell and Tim Tszyu.
I have no idea if Crawford will even fight Lopez.
I agree on Benavidez vs Morrell. 60/40 in Benavidez’s favor.
Whoever Spence wants and whenever he’s ready to come back is a big fight. Spence is a superstar and he moves the needles.
Mr. Edwards, I truly hope all is well with life! Once again, amazing strategy by you and Plant! Outstanding! My question to you is this; I have been reading up on Bivol. We know that Beterbiev has had knee surgery. Now I have come to understand that Bivol not only has had hand surgery, but that he has a stress fracture in both his elbow and his spine! If this is true, which it seems to be, won’t this greatly affect his punching ability and his overall performance against a cyclone of an opponent in Artur? Is this the reason his KO ratio has been lowered? Thank you in advance for your knowledge and your column! All the best! Kindest Regards, Jon L Aka-NC Uppercut
Bread’s Response: I think the reason Bivol’s KO% is lower, is simply because of his temperament. Once he gets the fight under control, he’s ok with winning. It’s simply not worth it, to go put himself in harm’s way to get a stoppage. In this fight his temperament may help him. But I suspect he has to put some hurt on Beterbiev to win. Not so much stop him, but punish him somewhat.
If Janibek Alimkhanuly, Erislandy Lara and Carlos Adames all fought each other, who would you expect to emerge as the undisputed champion? All three of them looked incredibly impressive the last time they set foot in a boxing ring. Thank you for your thoughts!
Bread’s Response: I don’t think all three looked so impressive. Lara dominated Danny Garcia. So let’s say that was impressive. But what was so impressive about Adames vs Terrell Gausha? I thought that fight was basically contested on even terms. And I thought Janibek was being roughed up in his fight vs a limited opponent. But I would expect all to be better if they fought each other. I would give Janibek a slight edge over Lara and Adames but nothing significant.
Hi Bread,
Why all the hate for Haney and him suing Garcia? Like Eddie Hearn said this could start a precedent where if fighters are getting sued for using PEDs for millions (providing Haney wins) then they’d in theory be less likely to use them because it would hurt more than having an enforced year off? I read a lot of your mailbags and occasionally the comments section and some people just really like being angry. I personally don’t have any sort of para social relationships with fighters/celebrities for that reason, it’s too tiring being that angry. Kind Regards Peter
Sussex, UK
Bread’s Response: Never read the comments section. It’s toxic. And you will never understand why people read a mailbag just to complain when they don’t have to read it at all.
I don’t know why Haney gets so much hate. It’s bizarre. I suspect it’s because they wanted him to keep that one in the loss column. And now that it’s gone, people are aggravated. But I’m not going to do the mental gymnastics to even try to figure out why people are mad at a fighter who’s opponent came in overweight and on PEDs.
Sup Bread,
Best Mexican fighter ever? I think it’s close between Chavez and Sanchez, but Sanchez is the clear winner in my opinion. There’s a reason why Roy Jones said Sanchez was the best he’s ever seen. We were robbed of seeing Sanchez at his absolute peak. We saw Chavez at his absolute peak vs Rosario. I would have loved to see Sanchez move up and fight Arguello which he welcomed when asked in a post-fight interview. I don’t think Canelo is in the conversation as the best, even if he beats Benavidez, and at this stage of his career I don’t see him beating Benavidez. I see a brutal war where Reynoso stops it in the corner. Your thoughts? Ray in San Diego
Bread’s Response: I think Sanchez and Chavez are in the argument for the best ever to come out of Mexico. I have watched both fight perfect fights. Sanchez vs Gomez and Chavez vs Rosario. Both were dominant and both struggled somewhat in other fights that people overlook. Chavez vs Laporte and Lockridge, Sanchez vs Ford and Caldwell.
I think Sanchez’s untimely death actually works in his favor in terms of his historical standing because we never got to see him on the other side of his prime. With Azumah Nelson improving, Jeff Fenech and Chavez emerging, Arguello being much bigger in 1982. Pernell Whitaker emerging. It’s safe to say Sanchez would have taken some losses if he fought until 1990. Don’t forget Barry McGuigan and Eusabio Pedroza. Sanchez never unified vs Pedroza.
I have no issue with the people who pick Chavez as No. 1. His longevity deserves recognition and his peak was comparable. I also have no issue with the people who pick Sanchez because his peak was so high. His nine title defenses are notable. And he has three wins over HOF.
I don’t want to leave out Ricardo Lopez who was just as good as both in my opinion. Today I will say Chavez 1a, Sanchez 1b.
Greetings Breadman, hope all is well!
Sorry to bump this as my email was a bit redundant being as you received tons of deserved praise on your mail bag for your fantastic work with Plant. Just really curious to know your thoughts on Garcia being a HOF. I just listened to Teddy Atlas’s podcast and he made it seem like Garcia is an absolute lock without question. And while I have tons of respect for both Atlas and Garcia, I just don’t see it and that’s no knock on Garcia as the HOF is reserved for the very best fighters and many more deserving fighters that I mentioned below aren’t even on the ballot. What are your thoughts?-Will
Bread’s Response: I love Danny Garcia. And I wanted him to beat Lara. I felt that a thirrd division title and being the third man in history to win titles at Junior Welterweight and Middleweight would have gotten Danny in the HOF. But he didn’t win the fight. I think he deserves consideration but I don’t think the media is impressed enough with his accomplishments or ability to vote him in. There are fighters from Danny’s era like Israel Vasquez and Chad Dawson who had better careers than Danny and probably won’t get in. If he gets in, I would be happy for him. But honestly it’s going to be tough. Danny hasn’t had a significant clear win vs an elite opponent since 2013 over Matthysse. I don’t know if that’s enough in this era. Let’s see what happens. He has to get on the ballot first. However, I’m rooting for him. Danny has been a bright light for boxing for my city for a very long time.
Hello Bread, I know you like them short and sweet so I’m wondering if you had to go into battle with a handful of fighters all time, who would they be and why? I’d go with Marciano, Ali, Hagler, Holyfield, Beterbiev.
Sam from Australia
Bread’s Response: I love your list. But you didn’t clarify what type of battle. If it’s a street fight to the death, I would pick Sonny Liston, George Foreman, David Tua, Mickey Walker and Jack Johnson. If it’s in RING BATTLES and the fighters I would be most comfortable with to overcome anything, I would go with Muhammad Ali, Ray Leonard, Ray Robinson, Roberto Duran and Salvador Sanchez.
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