Daniel Dubois vs. Anthony Joshua is, for Matchroom and Queensberry, a case of Next Goal Wins

Regardless of the score, or the balance of play, it is inevitable. It is usually shouted with about a minute to go in the match and the implication, when it is called, is that everything that came before it, including even the score, is now effectively irrelevant. 

“Next goal wins,” somebody shouts, at which point both teams, liberated by the permission to forget the scoreline, try to get hold of the football and score the all-important goal. One team achieves this; the other team complains, begs for more time.

In boxing terms, there is an argument to be made that Saturday’s (September 21) heavyweight fight between Daniel Dubois, the IBF champion, and Anthony Joshua, the former champion, is an example of Next Goal Wins. Certainly, if you view it through the eyes of the two promoters involved, the fight carries every hallmark of a Next Goal Wins scenario. 

After all, three and a half months ago Matchroom Boxing and Queensberry Promotions were engaging in a Five vs. Five event in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, during which scores were kept and bragging rights were at stake. That night, Queensberry happened to sweep the board, winning all five of the fights involving Queensberry boxers and Matchroom boxers in a rather emphatic rout. There were wins for Willy Hutchinson, Nick Ball, Hamzah Sheeraz, Daniel Dubois, and Zhilei Zhang, while the biggest winner of them all was arguably Frank Warren, in effect the manager of this thriving five-a-side outfit. Slowly throughout the night his counterpart, Eddie Hearn, could be seen slipping lower and lower into his seat and by its conclusion was conspicuous by his silence. Warren, in contrast, had never looked so smug. 

Prior to fight night, Hearn, as expected, had been by far the more vocal. He was the one cutting promos, extolling the virtues of his five avatars, and claiming victory for Matchroom would once and for all establish their promotional superiority in Great Britain. To then have to surrender to Warren in such fashion will have no doubt wounded Brentwood’s finest, if only on a superficial, utterly trivial level. Hearn, let’s not forget, is a competitor, someone who likes to back himself and his boys, and someone who believes he is the best at what he does. Losing 5-0 to Warren, or Queensberry, is no reflection on his ability to promote per se, but it was nevertheless a reminder that what happens in a ring between two fighters trumps anything a promoter, often just guessing like any other fan, says beforehand. 

Still, in the end, it all meant nothing. It meant nothing, one, because promoting is promoting and fighting is fighting, and two, because the only kind of fighters the two promoters were willing to let participate were those for whom defeat was not the end of the world. Each of the boxers involved, in fact, were either fringe contenders, older fighters, or fighters so young they could conceivably suffer a loss and still go on to have a fruitful and long career. They were not, in other words, gambling with their prized assets that night, Warren and Hearn. Good fighters, yes, maybe even future assets, but not the crown jewels so to speak. 

This was perhaps best exemplified by the night’s heavyweight fight: Zhilei Zhang vs. Deontay Wilder. This matchup, while intriguing on paper, contained absolutely zero jeopardy or even meaning by the time it came around. Not only was the tie sewn up by then (with Queensberry boxers winning all four previous fights), but it had also dawned on us that a defeat for either Zhang or Wilder would barely register for their respective promoters. Indeed, in the case of Wilder, he was not even officially promoted by Matchroom, but merely a wild card they had drafted in to provide the event with a high-profile heavyweight fight. Zhang, meanwhile, a 41-year-old from China who has become something of a cult hero, is the kind of heavyweight we have grown accustomed to seeing in recent decades, particularly when seeing them walk in front of promoters like Don King. That is to say, he is the kind of heavyweight relevant and loved only for as long as he keeps winning. For the Saudis, he is perfect. A defeat for Zhang breaks nobody’s heart, hurts nobody’s business, and is felt only by Zhang, the one who takes the punches. 

It made sense, then, for Zhang and Wilder to get together for Five vs. Five. The epitome of low risk, at least for the two promoters involved, there was a feeling by the end of it all that it didn’t really matter who won because their links to these promoters were tenuous at best. Neither Matchroom nor Queensberry needed their heavyweight to win that night, that’s for sure. 

The same cannot be said for the heavyweight fight this Saturday, of course. This one, which features Anthony Joshua and Daniel Dubois, again sees Hearn and Warren go head-to-head only now there is more on the line; now there is a feeling that it all means something. Joshua, for instance, has since turning pro in 2013 been Matchroom’s primary breadwinner, while Dubois has played a similar role at Queensberry, albeit to nowhere near the same degree. They are also heavyweight poster boys, Joshua and Dubois, meaning that from a promoter’s point of view a win here delivers not just bragging rights but the chance to then establish their heavyweight as the biggest draw in the country. Joshua, it could be argued, is already there, already that, yet to remain in this position and strengthen his position he cannot afford to slip up against Dubois. Dubois, likewise, cannot entertain the prospect of defeat, either. Not if he wants to hold on to his IBF heavyweight belt and not if he wants to one day fight either Oleksandr Usyk in a rematch, or Tyson Fury, the consensus two best heavyweights in the world. Moreover, for Dubois, someone who has yet to enjoy the same fame or wealth as Joshua, a win in this fight unlocks the door to superstardom, something Frank Warren, his promoter, will have been dreaming about for years. 

Warren, in fairness, has invested heavily in Dubois, just as Hearn has invested heavily in Joshua. For both these men, in fact, the two heavyweights appearing on Saturday represent passion projects developed from the ground up; day one. Dubois was just 19 when he turned pro with Warren, while Joshua, the 2012 Olympic champion, was 23. Since then, both have had their highs and lows, yet consistent throughout has been their promoter, with each of them, Warren and Hearn, keeping the faith.

Maybe, on account of them being heavyweights, and the division being so lucrative, this was always going to be the case. But still, credit should go to the two teams for staying tethered when so often in boxing we see a boxer leave a promoter, or a promoter leave a boxer, when the going gets tough. 

What this means now, in the context of Saturday’s fight, is that there is a real bond and attachment between fighter and promoter, which in turn guarantees that there will be plenty at stake when Joshua and Dubois take centre stage; far more than was ever at stake during the five fights Warren and Hearn concocted in June. Now at stake are a multitude of things. There is, on the one hand, a belt at stake: the IBF belt currently owned by Dubois and previously owned by Joshua. There are also bragging rights, both promotionally and territorially, with Joshua and Dubois hailing from London, England. Then you have the small matter of past, present and future, all of which are on the line in this fight and therefore at risk. Defeat for either man will, rightly or wrongly, reframe their past, have a detrimental impact on their present, and have some sort of effect, again detrimental, on their future. Their long-serving promoter, meanwhile, will experience a similar tremor, with the damage considerable and the desire to shout “Next goal wins!” – or perhaps, “Best of five!” – an overwhelming one.