By the time you read this, we will be hours, if not minutes, away from the pay-per-view headlined by Saul “Canelo” Alvarez vs. Edgar Berlanga and supported by a three-fight undercard and a three-fight preliminary broadcast.
The great team here at BoxingScene.com has done an excellent job all week of looking at the storylines coming into Canelo vs. Berlanga, plus Erislandy Lara vs. Danny Garcia, Caleb Plant vs. Trevor McCumby, Rolando Romero vs. Manuel Jaimes and the prelim headliner of Stephen Fulton vs. Carlos Castro.
(Check out those articles via each writer’s archive, with the coverage led in particular by Kieran Mulvaney, Lance Pugmire and Manouk Akopyan on the ground in Las Vegas and supported by additional, insightful pieces from Tris Dixon and Eric Raskin, among others.)
Let’s look, then, at the potential storylines that will come out of tonight’s action. What are the implications for each man in the case of a win or a loss? What happens next following victory or defeat?
CANELO VS. BERLANGA
If Canelo wins and Berlanga loses: Although Canelo is a singular superstar whose fights are events – even against the likes of a Berlanga – it’s fair to wonder how much longer he can draw sizable enough interest against the remaining contenders at 168 pounds. How many people would shell out for Canelo to face Christian Mbilli, Diego Pacheco or the winner of William Scull vs. Vladimir Shishkin? Other options are more interesting, and therefore more lucrative. So it’s reasonable to ponder if Canelo vs. Terence Crawford could be back on the table. There’s another realistic option: a potential return to 175. Canelo will likely keep a close eye on the Oct. 12 fight between Artur Beterbiev and Dmitry Bivol for the undisputed light heavyweight championship, especially because Canelo wants to avenge his 2022 decision loss to Bivol.
If Berlanga wins and Canelo loses: There would no doubt be a rematch should this highly unlikely scenario come to pass. That’s not just because Canelo would want a shot at regaining his three world titles and the lineal super middleweight championship but also because a sequel would remain the biggest potential payday of Berlanga’s career, surpassing the one he’s receiving tonight.
And if Berlanga were to also win the rematch – not to get too ahead of ourselves here – he would need to decide whether sticking around at 168 to face the likes of Pacheco, Jaime Munguia and the other super middleweight contenders would be more lucrative than chasing the big names at 175.
LARA VS. GARCIA
If Lara wins and Garcia loses: Lara is 41 but plans to keep fighting because, well, this is how he makes a living. While there’s not much in the way of depth or significant paydays at middleweight, Lara could aim for a unification bout with Premier Boxing Champions stablemate Carlos Adames. As for unified titleholder Janibek Alimkhanuly, who is with Top Rank, it’s doubtful that promotional and network allegiances would prevent that clash from happening.
PBC also has a number of fighters at 154, including Sebastian Fundora, Erickson Lubin and Errol Spence Jr., who may be willing to move up – especially given that Lara has shown a willingness with this Garcia bout to come in at a lighter catchweight. Less likely but still possible: Lara traveling overseas to take on some of the British 160-pounders, be it Hamzah Sheeraz or Chris Eubank Jr.
As for Garcia, it’s possible that a loss could send him into retirement, given how inactive he has been in recent years and that he’s started his own promotional company. It seems more likely that he would head back down to 154, what with the sheer number of big fights available at junior middleweight.
If Garcia wins and Lara loses: Garcia would probably make the same move down to junior middleweight, even if he beats Lara. Or he could remain at middleweight but try to lure the other 154-pounders up for a catchweight fight. Lara probably wouldn’t retire if he loses to Garcia unless defeat comes in destructive or demoralizing fashion. He has enough of a name that the other middleweight titleholders and contenders would be open to facing him, especially now that Lara is no longer as frustratingly mobile in the ring.
PLANT VS. McCUMBY
If Plant wins and McCumby loses: Plant would be in an interesting position if he wins. There’s not really an appetite at the moment for a rematch with Canelo, who stopped Plant in 2021. Perhaps Plant could entice Jermall Charlo to settle their beef in the ring; the two had an extracurricular altercation last year. A couple obstacles: Charlo is still dealing with legal issues and mental health struggles, sadly.
Would boxing politics prevent Plant from meeting up with the other name super middleweights? And does he perhaps aim for the winner of the upcoming fight between Scull and Shishkin? Given that Scull and Shishkin are fighting for the IBF title that Canelo vacated, perhaps Plant picking up that title could set up a second go-around with Canelo.
The undefeated but unproven McCumby losing to Plant wouldn’t necessarily consign him to the scrap heap. It would confirm, however, that he’s not yet – and, depending on the manner of defeat, may not ever be – ready for boxing’s upper echelons. McCumby would want to take a step down in level of difficulty and meet up with fellow prospects at 168 to see if he can rebuild and earn another opportunity.
If McCumby wins and Plant loses: McCumby acknowledged at the final pre-fight press conference that he has never beaten anyone on the level of the fighters Plant has beaten. A win over Plant would therefore leapfrog McCumby from an unproven prospect into an immediate contender. McCumby still wouldn’t have the name recognition to land a fight with the Canelo-Berlanga winner, but he could bolster his case by taking on other contenders at 168. McCumby spent much of his career at 175, so perhaps he could also be persuaded to meet up with one of the name fighters there, such as David Benavidez or David Morrell.
A loss to McCumby would be rough for Plant. It was one thing to lose to Canelo, who went on to become the undisputed champ, and to drop a decision to David Benavidez, long seen as the top remaining contender at 168. But if Plant comes up short against McCumby, he would become the B-side in crossroads fights with other contenders and prospects. That at least would mean Plant could have options available, but one more loss to one of them could send him packing for good.
ROMERO VS. JAIMES
If Romero wins and Jaimes loses: Romero needs a win after his last three performances: stoppage losses to Gervonta Davis and Isaac Cruz bookending a highly controversial TKO win over Ismael Barroso. Although a victory over Jaimes isn’t overly meaningful on paper, it would allow Romero to move forward against one of the many notable names at 140.
A loss for Jaimes simply sends him back to competing in the lower tiers.
If Jaimes wins and Romero loses: But if Jaimes were to score the upset, he would land another big fight – still as a B-side but receiving a significant payday and opportunity nonetheless.
Losing to Jaimes, however, would be particularly damaging for Romero, far bigger setbacks than his defeats to Davis and Cruz. Then again, Romero has enough name recognition that he could be back in as a B-side given how deep the junior welterweight division is.
FULTON VS. CASTRO
If Fulton wins and Castro loses: Fulton winning would establish him as a contender at 126. The most enticing options are a pair of rematches. There is Angelo Leo, whom Fulton defeated for a world title at 122 back in 2021. Leo now has a featherweight belt. It’s more likely that Leo will pursue other opponents under Top Rank’s banner, though. So perhaps Fulton could wind up taking on Brandon Figueroa again. The first Fulton-Figueroa fight, a unification bout at 122, was incredibly close and competitive, with Fulton getting the nod. There’s also titleholder Rey Vargas. Otherwise, Fulton may seek a stay-busy fight.
Castro would be hurt by a loss to Fulton, giving him his third defeat following a split decision loss to Luis Nery and a TKO at the hands of Figueroa. However, he could still wind up in a “loser leaves town” bout with other featherweights in this second tier, or he could move up to 130 and see if entering a new weight class can revitalize his career.
If Castro wins and Fulton loses: It’s unlikely that Castro would meet up with Figueroa again, given how their first clash concluded. Castro against Rey Vargas makes more sense. Or perhaps he could challenge another titleholder, Nick Ball.
Fulton losing would hurt far worse than his first defeat, which came last year against Naoya Inoue, but he would still have a path forward. Most likely, Fulton would seek to take on a number of mid-tier foes and work his way back up toward another title shot.
David Greisman, who has covered boxing since 2004, is on Twitter @FightingWords2. He is the co-host of the United Boxing Podcast. David’s book, “Fighting Words: The Heart and Heartbreak of Boxing,” is available on Amazon.
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