Former world champion Roy Jones Jr. views Dmitry Bivol as the favorite in his light heavyweight undisputed championship fight against unified champ Artur Beterbiev on October 12th in Riyadh.
Roy Jr. points out that IBF/WBC/WBO 175-lb champion Beterbiev (20-0, 20 KOs) has been knocked down before during his professional career, and he feels that gives WBA champ Bivol (23-0, 12 KOs) the advantage.
The two-time Olympian Beterbiev has been knocked down twice during his 11-year pro career, whereas Bivol has never been down during his ten-year career. In Roy’s mind, that means Bivol is the favorite to win.
Short Recovery Time
What Jones Jr. doesn’t mention is Beterbiev’s age, inactivity, and his recent meniscus knee injury, which caused the postponement of his June 1st fight against Bivol, pushing it to October 12th.
The short rehab time that Beterbiev is being given to come back from his knee injury would seem to be more of a factor than his being knocked down years ago by the heavy puncher Callum Johnson in 2018.
It’s unclear why His Excellency Turki Alalshikh is rescheduling the fight so soon after Beterbiev’s ruptured meniscus injury, but that would have to favor Eddie Hearn-promoted Bivol in this fight greatly.
That’s a big advantage for Hearn’s fighter, Bivol, to fight Beterbiev, who has just recovered from a knee injury and has a short recovery time.
Ideally, the fight should be rescheduled for the first quarter of 2025 so that Beterbiev has a sufficient period to rehab his knee and build up strength before he returns to training.
Jones Jr.’s Prediction: 60-40 in Favor of Bivol
“No, not 50-50. One, Beterbiev is 38-years-old [correction: 39]. Beterbiev has been down. Bivol has never been down. Bivol has been in with who, at the time, was pound-for-pound the best, Canelo Alvarez. He made him look like nothing,” said Roy Jones Jr. to Boxing Social, saying he doesn’t view the October 12th undisputed light heavyweight championship clash between Artur Beterbiev and Dmitry Bivol as a “50-50” contest.
Bivol’s win over the much smaller Canelo Alvarez is not a good reason why Bivol should be favored in this fight, Canelo was too small to be fighting Bivol, and he would have lost just as badly if he’d fought Beterbiev. The Mexican superstar doesn’t belong at 175.
“Beterbiev has everything to show me to bring it back to 50-50. Right now, Bivol has the advantage of 60-40. Bivol is a hell of a guy and a hell of a fighter and has awesome power, but he’s also been down [against Callum Johnson in 2018 and Jeff Page Jr. in 2014],” said Roy Jr.
Callum Johnson is a much bigger puncher than Bivol has ever been, so it’s not surprising that Beterbiev was dropped by him in their fight six years ago. Beterbiev got careless when he was on the attack, and Johnson nailed him in the second. Johnson had already been down in the first. In the fourth round, Beterbiev knocked him out.
“So, when I look at that when I see someone else knocked you down, I got to get you down,” said Roy Jr. “Now, that’s a hell of a place to get him down, though. So, it’s a dangerous game that Bivol has got to play because Beterbiev is the most dangerous puncher probably ever in that division [175].”
Bivol isn’t going to try to slug with Beterbiev because he’s not that type of fighter. Last Saturday night, Bivol got a rare knockout when he stopped fringe contender Malik Zinad in the sixth round, but before that, he hadn’t scored a stoppage since 2018.
Bivol plays it safe generally unless he’s up against someone who is limited, like Zinad and Sullivan Barrera. What Bivol will likely be doing is trying to outbox Beterbiev, take advantage of his short recovery period for his knee injury, and play it safe.
“It’s a great fight, but if it’s 50-50, it’s because of his [Beterbiev] punching power. Maybe he may land, maybe he won’t. That’s the only 50-50,” said Jones Jr. “But as far as the overall fight game goes, Bivol has the advantage.”
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