The criticism of Saul “Canelo” Alvarez’s competition, if it hasn’t already peaked, is sure to reach a deafening pitch after his dismantling of Edgar Berlanga in Las Vegas on Sunday. For all Alvarez’s post-fight defiance, literally no one has claimed he doesn’t take on younger fighters – and smacking around a 27-year-old Berlanga nevertheless accomplished precious little toward proving Canelo’s frequent claim that he is the best fighter in the world.
Still, is that the ultimate goal for Alvarez (62-2-2, 39 KOs)? Sure, he wants respect. But he has made it abundantly clear that he also likes money. And whether fans appreciate it or not, he’s savvy: Canelo, 34, undoubtedly considers his longevity through the lens of both legacy and career earning power. So where does he go from here? After denying David Benavidez for so long, is now the time for Alvarez to make a date with his former super middleweight mandatory? Does Canelo instead go after Terence Crawford, a potentially lesser threat with a grander profile? Also seemingly on the table: a rematch (and potential revenge) against Dmitry Bivol; a meeting with Artur Beterbiev, if he were to beat Bivol on Oct. 12; and lower-hanging fruit such as Christian Mbilli, Diego Pacheco and others.
And so we set the question to our staff at BoxingScene: Who is the wisest choice for Canelo Alvarez’s next opponent?
Matt Christie: The wisest choice, from Team Canelo’s point of view, would be to keep their man at super middleweight, where he can likely reign for a few years yet. He’s now 10-0 in the weight class, and though we might moan and groan about his choice of opponents, history will likely be kind to his long-standing divisional reign in years to come.
However, he surely senses the desire from observers to see him test himself.
Perhaps another defense down at 168 – against someone like Mbilli – before setting his sights on the Beterbiev-Bivol winner in a win-or-bust expedition.
A loss won’t hurt Alvarez’s legacy like a defeat to Crawford, Benavidez or David Morrell – something of which he’s no doubt acutely aware. As a fan, however, I’d favor any of those three fights over all other options.
Eric Raskin: I know Canelo is convinced that fighting Crawford is a no-win situation for him, but I believe he’s wrong about that. It’s currently a gap of two weight classes. Was fighting Kell Brook a no-win situation for Gennady Golovkin? Not at all. And Crawford just happens to be an all-time great (unlike Brook) who has never been defeated. You hand an all-time great his first loss? That’s an accomplishment, regardless of the size differential.
All that said, Canelo would be a favorite over Crawford, which would not be the case against the Bivol-Beterbiev winner, and may not be the case against Benavidez. This is a fight he’s reasonably likely to win, which would earn him an enormous paycheck, and that fans will be thrilled for, especially on the heels of a fight in which Canelo was a -1800 favorite. Canelo-Crawford would attract mainstream attention. It would be an event.
Sounds like a wise choice to me.
Kieran Mulvaney: Whomever he faces, Canelo will earn many dollars more than most of us will earn in a lifetime. Crawford brings upside but massive potential downside, Benavidez huge upside but very big risk. Looking at choices in potential opponents purely in terms of what’s smartest for Canelo, I’ll say Mbilli. Alvarez can mollify critics by rightly painting Mbilli as the best super middleweight challenger available to him right now; but although he is strong and highly capable, he doesn’t bring anything Canelo hasn’t seen before. It would probably be an entertaining fight for the fans and another UD12 for Alvarez.
Declan Warrington: Crawford is the biggest fight, but he’s too small to test Alvarez – we didn’t need to see him against Israil Madrimov to know that. Which means there’s only one fight for him – Benavidez. Benavidez is not only his most dangerous opponent but the one most capable of enhancing the legacy he often mentions (and which will be undermined if he continues fighting opponents of the caliber of Edgar Berlanga). He also might have timed his most dangerous, and second-most lucrative, remaining fight in the same way Floyd Mayweather Jnr did with him in 2013 – Benavidez will struggle to make 168 pounds after moving up and staying at light heavyweight, ensuring everything would be in Alvarez’s favor. Which is something Alvarez likely knows. If he doesn’t fight him this time, he’ll deserve all of the criticism he had been certain to receive.
Bernard Neequaye: I’ll go with Benavidez. At this stage in Canelo’s career, I believe it’s the only fight that’s missing on his resume. Even though he doesn’t need it to prove his Hall of Fame status, it’s the fight that every boxing enthusiast wants to see at 168.
A Crawford fight, by comparison, wouldn’t be very competitive, given Crawford’s recent (ordinary) performance against Israil Madrimov at 154 pounds.
Canelo also spoke of wanting a rematch with Dmitry Bivol, and I’m sure he has his reasons for wanting that fight. But what boxing needs more right now is Canelo-Benavidez, just as it needed Mayweather-Manny Pacquiao back in 2015.
Lucas Ketelle: Alvarez faces a dilemma in picking his next opponent. While fans clamor for certain matchups (like Benavidez), the smartest choice may not align with popular demand. Amid Canelo’s tensions with Turki Alalshikh, my proposal – though it’s likely to be dismissed – promises the biggest spectacle with minimal risk and maximum exposure and revenue.
Boxing and MMA fans have always been divided, with little crossover between the two. Alalshikh just backed the UFC, which held an event at The Sphere on the same night as Canelo’s triumph over Edgar Berlanga. Taking a cue from Mayweather, a bout against Conor McGregor could ignite buzz and intrigue, regardless of the outcome. Sometimes, the shrewdest decision isn’t the crowd-pleaser but is undeniably the one that makes the most headlines.
David Greisman: The wisest choice for Canelo is the winner of Beterbiev-Bivol. If it’s Beterbiev, Canelo can try to slay the giant of the 175-pound weight class. If it’s Bivol, then it’s a chance for revenge, and perhaps Canelo can leverage his star power into a catchweight that disadvantages Bivol. Canelo has spoken of lose-lose scenarios (as with the Crawford fight). Beterbiev or Bivol would be no-lose scenarios. Even in defeat, Canelo could conclude that light heavyweights are too big for him and finally shut the door on Benavidez, who may not be able to squeeze his body down to 168 anymore. That being said, I think a fight with Crawford is the most lucrative match available for Canelo, who has been playing hard-to-get in order to drive up his price tag. Unless MMA’s McGregor dons the boxing gloves again.
Owen Lewis: As a fan, what I want more than anything is for Canelo to fight someone with a tangible chance of beating him. The man himself clearly feels differently. My guess is that he remains intent on seeking the fights imbued with the lowest risk for the most reward, regardless of what he’s saying about a Bivol rematch. (Had he been willing to take that fight in his best weight class, instead of 175, it would have happened already.) David Benavidez remains the best fight to make, but after five straight foregone conclusions, I suspect exasperated fans would accept anybody risky.
Jason Langendorf: When it comes to the moral and existential crisis surrounding whether Alvarez is “coasting,” I come from the Deputy U.S. Marshal Samuel Gerard School of Philosophy: I don’t care. The men and women who punch and get punched in the face for our entertainment get to use whatever leverage they have to optimize their careers, and fans get to choose whether or not to show up with their Modelos and DraftKings apps to watch. Them’s the rules.
Still, if I’m Canelo and I’m strategizing how to maximize my remaining paydays while also striving for greatness, I start with Crawford. Alvarez is 34 years old and 66 fights deep into his career, which means cash-out time is near, if not here. A Crawford fight would be a massive spectacle and moneymaker of a fight, the risk for physical damage is low(ish), and in the event of a loss, Alvarez could still set up and knock down the Mbillis of the world to play out the string and pad his pocketbook. If he wins? A subsequent fight with the Beterbiev-Bivol winner is turned up to 11. And if he wins that one? Canelo makes bank, appeases his critics and etches himself into boxing history as an unimpeachable all-time great.
Tris Dixon: It doesn’t have to be, but, it has to be Benavidez. Canelo is not going to get any better, Benavidez is. Benavidez has just been up to 175, so drag him back down to a catchweight of 166, stack the deck in your favor and make it happen.
I see the size of the Crawford fight. I see the benefit of trying to avenge the defeat by Bivol. I’d give him enormous credit for facing Beterbiev. He’d even merit praise for going after low-hanging title fruit at 200lbs, but adding the name of Benavidez to his resume will be the finest addition to his legacy.
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