The stats that prove Canelo Alvarez is not the same fighter he once was

It is not new information that Saul “Canelo” Alvarez is not the fighter he was several years ago, but that is more observation than criticism. 

The Mexican icon remains one of the best fighters in the sport and arguably its leading attraction.

He can still do solid numbers regardless of his opponent. In the case of this Saturday, a more lucrative decision would have been for Alvarez to face David Benavidez, but he will make out just fine from facing Edgar Berlanga instead.

Benavidez is a heavy-handed volume puncher and Canelo doesn’t really need either of those attributes in the opposite corner, not that I feel he is fearful of Benavidez.

But Benavidez’s hunger, ambition and enthusiasm were hallmarks of Canelo’s rise, from welterweight and junior middleweight and his calling cards, while still fearsome and worthy of respect, are different in 2024 now he is 34 years of age.

During his ascension to prominence as the sport’s leading light, Canelo boxed 14 times at 154lbs, had four outings at middleweight and his last 11 fights have been either at 168, where he dominates today, and at 175lbs, where he claimed a portion of the title against Sergey Kovalev before losing a decision to Dmitry Bivol and heading back to 168.

Back in around 2010, and campaigning at 154, Canelo was defeating the likes of Ryan Rhodes, Matthew Hatton, Carlos Baldomir, Lovemore Ndou, Kermit Cintron and Josesito Lopez, and that run ground to a halt after an empathic points loss to Floyd Mayweather, before familiar order was returned to against James Kirkland, Miguel Cotto and Amir Khan.

CompuBox stats reveal that in those days, Canelo would land 17.8 of 39.4 punches per round, including 13.6 of 27.2 per round of his power punches, or an even 50 per cent.

Those fights included him struggling to solve the puzzle presented by Cuban Erislandy Lara, while waiting for his moment as a weight bully – or a smart negotiator, depending on your outlook – against former 140lbs champion Amir Khan.

The rise up to middleweight saw him dominate Julio Cesar Chavez Jr, twice battle on even terms with Gennady Golovkin, and fend off New Yorker Danny Jacobs.

Up at 160, he was more active from a volume perspective, throwing 45.8 punches a round, landing 35.8 per cent (16.4 blows), and scoring with 10.9 of 25.9 power punches per round.

This current iteration of Canelo, having scooped all of the titles at super middle (before the IBF recently decided to strip him) and having collected silverware at light heavyweight, is landing 13.4 punches out of 38.3 per round – a success rate of 35 per cent. Power punches are down to 9.7 lands per rounds (from 20.8 thrown), but he scores with a regularity of 46.6 per cent.

Today, Canelo is landing and throwing fewer total punches per round (seven fewer thrown per round than he threw at 160 and 154) and that figure is best illustrated in his power punch output, because the 9.7 of 20.8 thrown is a drop off from 13.6 of 27.2 at 154.  

“Less is more for this version of Canelo,” said CompuBox founder Bob Canobbio. “This less is more strategy applies to Bernard Hopkins as well.”

Hopkins, one of the great middleweights, had astonishing late career success at 175lbs. His output dropped significantly as time went on. Through the 20-fight period from May 1990 to February 2022 he was throwing some 57.1 punches a round but from March 2003 to December 2016 – a span of 22 fights – Hopkins was throwing almost 20 punches less per round, but he was as accurate as ever. 

Defensively, Hopkins was an astute operator, and Canelo is now, too. But not only does he have those ring general qualities that are so vital at the highest level, but he has the power to strike fear and more than earn the respect of his opponents with his power. His speed and accuracy with snappy counters is enough to cause an opponent to virtually shut up shop, and he is, frankly, presenting them with far fewer opportunities for success. 

At 154, Canelo foes couldn’t land an average of 25 per cent of 49.9 punches thrown in his direction, and while that crept up to 25.8 per cent at middleweight, the two give-and-take fights with Golovkin warped that stat and the 11 bouts at 168 and 175 have resulted in being hit less than 10 times a round, with his opponents landing a meagre 9.8 punches, at 20.9 per cent.