Which underdog has the best chance of winning?

Ahead of Saturday’s huge night of boxing in Riyadh, the BoxingScene team looks ahead to what it anticipates will happen in Saudi Arabia and, on a promotion featuring numerous main-event-worthy contests, discusses which so-called “underdog” has the greatest chance of victory.

Tris Dixon: Even though he’s the champion, people might be sleeping on Carlos Adames. Sheeraz looks gifted and, understandably, there’s real momentum and enthusiasm behind him. But Adames is a tough man and he’s not going to lie down for Sheeraz to be anointed. 

Kieran Mulvaney: Israil Madrimov. He is skilled and incredibly strong, and gave Terence Crawford a tougher-than-expected challenge last time around. As good as Ortiz is, he isn’t Crawford; plus, he arguably got away with one last time out. Not saying Madrimov wins, but he shouldn’t be overlooked.

Lance Pugmire: Joseph Parker. Not the sexy pick, for sure, but the disciplined former champion from New Zealand is capable of knocking out new champion Daniel Dubois, and we never know how a first-time heavyweight champion (Buster Douglas, Andy Ruiz Jnr) will respond to the weight of that crown. Parker’s recent triumphs over Zhilei Zhang and Deontay Wilder show how formidable he is.

Tom Ivers: I agree with Kieran on this one – it’s hard to view Israil Madrimov as an underdog after his performance against Terence Crawford. Vergil Ortiz Jnr didn’t have his best of performances against Serhii Bohachuk and I just think Madrimov is another step up. I would make Madrimov the favorite going into this, but the bookies disagree.

Ryan Songalia: I might go with Joseph Parker. Yeah, he’s been up and down in his career, but he always knows how to find the answers when he’s been counted out. Parker showed against Zhang that he can adjust even after being down, and Dubois often leaves himself open for counters. I think in some ways this might prove to be a tough stylistic match-up for Dubois.

Owen Lewis: Is it cheating if I say Bivol, who is listed as +105 on DraftKings in what is really another pick ‘em? Bivol was arguably hard done by not to get the nod in the first fight against Beterbiev and his opponent has since turned 40. Bivol could easily find himself unconscious at Beterbiev’s feet, but as a proven ex-champion whose only loss was incredibly narrow, he’s a more reliable bet for the win than the other underdogs on the card.

Matt Christie: Though only a narrow underdog, Bivol is – at least at the time of this writing – the underdog so I’d choose him. After that, Madrimov is arguably the livest one.

Eric Raskin: This isn’t quite an answer to the question being asked, but betting man that I am, I’m going to focus on the underdog who I think offers the most value, and that’s Parker at +235. If you think there’s a 30 per cent chance or greater that he beats Dubois, then that price offers value. And I definitely think his chances of pulling the upset are over 30 per cent. Dubois is the heavyweight contender we’re all more excited about — he’s in great form, is younger, and has the higher upside — but Parker is just the kind of steady, confident veteran who can derail him.

Declan Warrington: Bivol. That first fight could very easily have ended with him being announced as the winner; he also, like only the very best fighters and more so than most in 2025, learns to read, negate, counter and time his opponents more and more effectively the longer he shares the ring with them.

Elliot Worsell: If Bivol is the underdog, I would have to say him. Had it not been for the final two rounds of their first fight, I would have struggled to see how Beterbiev beats him. Now I’m not quite so sure – but still, Bivol for me. 

Lucas Ketelle: Whoever is listed as the underdog between Zhilei Zhang and Agit Kabayel. It is a 50-50 fight.

Jason Langendorf: It’s Parker. I’m not predicting a win over Dubois, but given Parker’s power, punch volume and strong run since falling to Joe Joyce, he has more than an outside shot of catching Dubois – who, for all of his recent distinction, still has a chin that we can’t be certain will hold up.