Who wins Artur Beterbiev-Dmitry Bivol II, and why?

Ahead of Saturday’s huge night of boxing in Riyadh, the BoxingScene team looks ahead to what it anticipates will happen in Saudi Arabia, and which fighter will emerge with victory from one of the most appealing match-ups of all.

Tris Dixon: Since John Scully, who works with Beterbiev, pointed out that there is still a mark under Bivol’s left eye, I can’t unsee it. Chris Eubank’s first fight with Carl Thompson was a war and he still had a black eye as a result when they fought again, and it promptly came into play. Scully really knows the sport inside out, and while it will be tempting to say Beterbiev is that bit older and Bivol now knows what he’s in against, I think that eye will become a factor and while Beterbiev might not stop Bivol, it could become such a hindrance that he has to give up ground and give up rounds to survive.

Kieran Mulvaney: I picked Bivol to win the first time, and I thought he eked it, personally, so I’m picking him again. Beterbiev consistently impresses, and there is so much more to him than power alone, but he is 40 years old now, and this is the quickest turn-around between fights for him since 2015. There is so little to choose between them that marginal differences will come into play, and this time around those are in Bivol’s favor.

Lance Pugmire: Dmitry Bivol. I thought he won the first fight, and his 12 rounds of experience against the older, heavier hitter should invoke Bivol to produce a shining show similar to his performance against Canelo Alvarez. Beterbiev has an excuse to let off the gas given his position for a trilogy match, and that fraction of motivation favoring Bivol – along with the fact Beterbiev has turned 40 – should pace Bivol to a unanimous decision. I’ll say 116-112.

Tom Ivers: Artur Beterbiev can perform a lot better than he did in October, especially with him coming off a serious knee injury. I think we will see a fitter, sharper and more explosive Beterbiev this time out. He will up the tempo early and I can’t see Bivol being able to handle the consistent pressure for 12 rounds. I don’t think Bivol can improve much on his performance in October, and if he holds his feet more I can only picture a Beterbiev knockout.

Ryan Songalia: It’s really tough to say, because I don’t know what each fighter can do differently from their super-close first fight. Beterbiev ultimately won out because he was willing to push a little harder late in the fight than Bivol, who himself had a lot of success early on picking off Beterbiev coming in. I think if Bivol can make some investments to the body early, instead of going exclusively for the low hanging fruit upstairs, then maybe he can close the fight stronger. But I think you have to favor Beterbiev again.

Owen Lewis: If Beterbiev were 35 and not 40, I would agree with Tom’s prediction to the letter. I thought Bivol looked exceptional in October and executed his desired game plan to the highest standard possible, while Beterbiev was only sporadically effective, though admittedly more so in the vital championship rounds. Given that Beterbiev edged the decision anyway, I felt it was fairly clear proof that he is the better overall fighter. But Beterbiev is comfortably the oldest fighter on pound-for-pound lists and, despite his resistance of Father Time so far, logic suggests he’ll look a little worse in this fight than he did the last, just as he was a little worse against Bivol than against Callum Smith in January 2024. Beterbiev’s power still makes him a constant threat to win by knockout, but I expect age to dent his engine – and maybe even his punch resistance – by enough for Bivol to win a decision.

Matt Christie: Like fight one, it’s an exceptionally hard pick. And even after having the benefit of seeing them share a ring before, it doesn’t get any easier to decide. Perhaps Beterbiev was struggling with an injury last time and not quite match fit because, though I felt he just nicked it, he struggled to assert himself for long enough to be convincing. Given their ages, and potential room for improvement, Bivol on points would be my tentative prediction.

Eric Raskin: I’m leaning towards a repeat victory for Beterbiev, perhaps a bit less controversially this time. Bivol was really feeling the pressure as the first fight wore on. As diligently as he boxed, he didn’t seem able to hurt Beterbiev and learned how hard it is to discourage him. As long as Beterbiev doesn’t show up feeling his age more than he did in October, I think he can get started a little earlier this time and bully his way to a unanimous points win.

Declan Warrington: To contradict something I’ve already written about this fight, Beterbiev by stoppage. I’m convinced that it’ll be won by the fighter who benefitted the most from the first fight between them – whoever learned the most about the other, and can make the necessary adjustments to win the boxing contest. It very possibly could prove to be Bivol who produces another masterclass to do so. But if it’s Beterbiev – and there were hints in the first fight that it will be – that typically means a stoppage victory. Is it too cynical to point out that if it’s as competitive as the first fight, Bivol’s likely to get the decision because of the potential for a third fight to follow? If it isn’t, I had similar suspicions before Oleksandr Usyk-Tyson Fury II, and was pleasantly surprised that they proved misfounded. 

Elliot Worsell: As always, I really don’t have a clue, but I’ll go for Bivol on the basis that I thought he won the first fight with rounds to spare and, around the ninth or tenth, I felt he was putting on a bit of a masterclass. Things soon changed, of course, in rounds 11 and 12, but I cannot deny how I felt watching Bivol during those first 10 rounds. That said, Beterbiev will surely be better the second time around, and will no doubt be encouraged by what happened in rounds 11 and 12 of fight one.

Lucas Ketelle: I believe we’ll see a draw. The first fight was so close, and I doubt we’ll see anything different in the second.

Jason Langendorf: The rematch is as much of a toss-up as the first fight, in regard to how it was viewed both before and after. It just depends on what you like. But Beterbiev’s power is a differentiator, and if his knee is sound and he hasn’t somehow aged four years in the past four months, he’ll win even more convincingly this time around – perhaps even by knockout.