Who wins each bout and why?

Before we get to the rematch between Artur Beterbiev and Dmitry Bivol for all the light heavyweight marbles in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, we have an undercard of the ages that features two heavyweight collisions, Joseph Parker vs. Martin Bakole and Zhilei Zhang vs. Agit Kabayel, alongside Callum Smith vs. Joshua Buatsi at light heavyweight, Carlos Adames vs. Hamzah Sheeraz at middleweight, Vergil Ortiz Jnr vs. Israil Madrimov in the division below and, down at lightweight, Shakur Stevenson vs. Josh Padley.

Brace yourself for the ultimate ‘who wins and why’ guide to each bout…  

JOSHUA BUATSI vs CALLUM SMITH (12 rounds, light heavyweight)

When they walk to the ring for their fight at the Venue Riyadh Season in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia on Saturday evening, despite Callum Smith being the more decorated and proven fighter, unusually it will be Joshua Buatsi’s legacy that will be more under threat.

Victory over Smith, ultimately, is essential for Buatsi, but – in many respects unfairly – victory over Buatsi isn’t necessarily essential for Smith. 

It was in 2016 when Buatsi became recognized as one of British boxing’s most promising prospects, as a consequence of his success in winning a bronze medal at the Rio Olympic Games. Smith, by then, was an established professional, and in the years since he has won a super-middleweight world title and for a period been considered his division’s leading fighter; he has also lost only to two of his generation’s finest fighters in Saul “Canelo” Alvarez and Artur Beterbiev, and perhaps tellingly was considered a worthy opponent on the occasion of both fights.

In recording victories over Rocky Fielding, John Ryder (albeit contentiously; Smith was later recognised as struggling to make the 168lbs weight limit) and George Groves, among others, Smith came to be considered the finest super middleweight in the world. In winning the World Boxing Super Series – he retired Groves in the final in 2018 that was hosted in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia – and later fighting Alvarez when the Mexican was widely considered at his peak and the world’s very finest active fighter, he also earned purses that have so far remained beyond Buatsi’s reach.

He, similarly, did so without the marketability being an Olympian offered Buatsi, and yet for all of the many differences in their schooling and careers, they both enter Saturday’s contest carrying a similar, if not identical, frustration – that that a fighter develops when they recognise that their career has stalled.

In the same way that Smith, 34 years old, defeated those considered his contemporaries, the highlights of Buatsi’s career have been deserved victories over domestic rivals Craig Richards, Willy Hutchinson and Dan Azeez. Those over Azeez and Hutchinson came in 2024, making it perhaps the finest year of his eight-year professional career. Yet victory over Azeez was intended to lead to an endlessly appealing fight in a main event against Anthony Yarde; Hutchinson instead later followed on an undercard, and despite him recording two knockdowns during the course of earning a split decision, Buatsi earned minimal acclaim.

If Smith’s career was stalled largely by both an injury to Beterbiev that delayed their contest to January 2024 and then his recovery from his only stoppage defeat, Buatsi’s was first undermined by the effects of the Covid pandemic when he was building momentum, then by his acrimonious departure from Matchroom for Boxxer, and then most recently by the pursuit of a fight with Yarde. It is for that reason that questions surrounding his true ability persist. He has consistently succeeded – albeit often without truly excelling – at the levels he has been matched at, but he has long been considered capable of winning world honours, and yet the vacant WBO interim light-heavyweight title he won against Hutchinson and that he attempts to defend against Smith is as close to doing so as he has got.

If Matchroom’s Eddie Hearn is to be believed (Hearn, incidentally, continues to promote Smith; it also perhaps shouldn’t be overlooked how tense his relationship became with Buatsi and his Boxxer counterpart Ben Shalom and therefore how personal Saturday’s fight potentially feels) Buatsi resisted the opportunity to fight Bivol prior to 2024. But there was also a time Hearn gave Buatsi prominent positions on the undercards of significant promotions led by Anthony Joshua, and when Matchroom’s investment and faith in Buatsi appeared on course to surpass that in Smith. 

When aged 31 the undefeated Buatsi should be relishing the peak of his career, despite the strength of his strongest victories, he instead remains a fighting enigma – a 19-fight professional still spoken about in terms of potential, despite two Olympic cycles passing since the bronze medal that in so many respects continues to define him. There also exists the relative misfortune of his ascent coinciding with the title reigns of Bivol and Beterbiev, and the reality that were he to have fought them previously they almost certainly would have represented for him too much, too soon.

Yet in the same way that the time will soon come when Bivol, Beterbiev and Smith are no longer active fighters, if Buatsi is to truly make the nature of mark as a professional that would justify the long-term, wider excitement surrounding him, he will have to defeat Smith and he will have to convince.

Where, against Ryder aside, Smith has regularly been dominant in victory, Buatsi, despite being far from the classic nature of fighter to fight at the level of his opposition, has typically, without labouring, appeared to have done little more than coast to the majority of his most important wins.

Azeez once told BoxingScene that he had reflected that Buatsi had “wanted” victory more when they met as undefeated fighters in February 2024. It has even more widely been suggested that if Buatsi is to fulfil his perceived potential, he will finally do so when matched with the nature of opponent who demands he does – and for the first time in his career he has been matched with one such opponent, in Smith.

Yet if Smith – unlike so many of Beterbiev’s previous opponents – hasn’t been damaged in defeat by the Russian, unless the relative inactivity of 18 rounds in four years undermines him, he retains the ability to not only provide Buatsi’s toughest test, but to defeat him. If he fights on the front foot and uses his significant range and power he can make Buatsi work harder than he has ever previously had to, and in targeting Buatsi’s body can hurt him and slow him down.

It may not prove irrelevant that Smith’s trainer Buddy McGirt was in Azeez’s corner the night of the defeat by Buatsi and therefore observed from ringside one of Buatsi’s finest performances. It may also prove relevant that Buatsi has for even longer been trained by the equally experienced Virgil Hunter – a trainer whose greatest successes have come with fighters at their best controlling the range and pace of their fights.

Buatsi, regardless, will need to target Smith’s body in an attempt to stop him imposing himself. He will also have to show superior speed and mobility to outwork him and potentially even attempt to counter him – there will come a time when he will have to take risks – yet without showing the same spite of some of his more recent contests, to resist spending lengthy periods of a potentially difficult fight on the retreat.

If he is the fighter those most confident in him believe he is – he has regained considerable momentum – then he may just do so, and he may even earn what could well come to be considered the finest victory of his career. But if Smith remains close to the fighter he was before he fought Beterbiev, favouring Buatsi for victory is an act of faith over one built on substance. Smith is the proven fighter who appears to retain influential physical advantages – Buatsi continues to represent promise and potential – and on that basis Smith can be expected to earn a narrow victory, on points.

ZHILEI ZHANG vs AGIT KABAYEL (12 rounds, heavyweight)

There remains a sense with Zhilei Zhang, even at the age of 41, that we’re yet to find out how good – or even average – he really is. The same might be said for Saturday’s opponent, fellow heavyweight contender Agit Kabayel, who in his last two fights has at last started to put some meat on the bones of his unbeaten record. For those reasons of discovery alone, Saturday’s showdown in Saudi Arabia, which pits them together over 12 scheduled rounds, is an enticing encounter.

The uncertainty surrounding Zhang, 27-2-1 (22 KOs), might be largely attributed to a perceived tendency to fade, lose his shape, and run out of ideas in the second half of contests. It happened when he was held to a 10-round draw by the unfancied Jerry Forrest in 2021, there was an obvious energy slump when pipped over 12 by Filip Hrgovic the following year and, most recently, when Joseph Parker finished strongly to beat the Chinese southpaw over the same distance last year. In all three bouts, Zhang was in the ascendancy early and scored knockdowns.

To place too much logic on his tank emptying and merely conclude that all anyone needs to do to beat him is simply to hang around long enough would be doing a disservice to the force he can bring early, however. Surviving against Zhang, though plainly possible, takes grit, determination, and the ability to withstand the most potent left hand in the heavyweight division. There’s a cuteness to his work at times, too. He certainly has the basics down and can undoubtedly box, but banging, as he often likes to remind us, is his speciality.

We shouldn’t forget that Joe Joyce, a fellow former Olympic medallist, was widely regarded as freakishly durable until Zhang’s power arm, which he likes to hurl long and straight, turned the Englishman’s supposedly bionic chin to mush. Those two 2023 stoppage wins, in consecutive bouts, likely remain Zhang’s most impressive. His five-round demolition of Deontay Wilder is also worthy of praise but the deterioration in the former WBC boss was apparent from the get-go last June. Throw in the knockdowns scored against Parker and Hrgovic and the extent of the task awaiting Kabayel is obvious: To win, he’ll have to prove his mettle along the way.

The German, 25-0 (17 KOs), is an old school perennial contender. The 32-year-old came to prominence of sorts when he outhustled Derek Chisora over 12 forgettable rounds back in 2017 but his progress, though European champion and rated favorably by the sanctioning bodies, was slow until he was invited to Saudi Arabia to play the role of opponent for Arslanbek Makhmudov at the end of 2023. Kabayel, in a breakout showing, made a mockery of his rival’s 18-0 stats with a savage four-round triumph, dropping Makhmudov three times.

That was followed by another trip to Riyadh, in May 2024, when he knocked out the 24-0 and highly ranked Frank Sanchez in seven rounds. 

The questions remain, however. If Kabayel was as devastating as he looked against Makhmudov and Sanchez, why was he laboring against the likes of Chisora, Andrii Rudenko and Herve Hubeux in the past? If Kabayel is really that good, why has it taken so long for the rest of the world to see it? The answer may very simply be that he raised his game when in the most lucrative shop window of them all. It’s feasible, too, that he’s now improving with every outing after a long and arduous education.

What’s also possible is that neither Makhmudov or Sanchez had truly earned their contender tags and were exposed the moment they stepped up in class for the first time. Therefore, beating two unproven heavyweights does not automatically mean that Kabayel becomes a world beater.

Yet it was the measured attacks he used in both beatdowns, nearly always punctuated by hurtful raids to the body, that point to someone who is, at the very least, difficult to contain. He showed against Makhmudov that he could take a shot, also that he knows how to cut off the ring, get close, and wipe out any advantages in height that his opponent may have. Zhang, at 6ft 6ins, is three inches taller but they both boast an 80-inch reach which suggests that Kabayel, who moves inside on smart feet, won’t have a problem with his aim downstairs.

That southpaw stance of the taller man won’t be alien to Kabayel – he’s beaten three lefties before – but it might become apparent that Zhang, adept at keeping things long in the early going, is a different beast to the likes of Pavel Siska, Wladimir Letr and Agron Smakici.

Zhang has the power to hurt any heavyweight. He’s also underrated when it comes to pure boxing skill. But we’re yet to see him put it all together effectively over a 12-round fight so it would be surprise if he was able to suddenly do that here – particularly at the age of 41.

The pick, therefore, is for the quietly confident Kabayel to artfully negotiate any early crises, slow his man down with accurate swipes to the body, retain control in the second half, and win on the cards.

Purely for the sake of record-keeping, we should probably also mention that the vacant WBC ‘interim’ heavyweight strap is on the line (even though WBC heavyweight champion Oleksandr Usyk is glaringly active, fit, and well).

SHAKUR STEVENSON vs JOSH PADLEY (12 rounds, lightweight)

Almost 32 years have passed since the day that Tim Tomashek, a part-time heavyweight journeyman who worked at a department store chain’s distribution center, was pulled out of the crowd, ushered backstage and emerged a couple hours later to fight Tommy Morrison for a heavyweight belt, live on ESPN.

Considering that he had pre-gamed for the late replacement assignment by eating hot dogs and drinking beer among the Kansas City fans, it wasn’t too bad of a performance for Tomashek, who became a minor celebrity for a short while because of his show of fortitude and prolific use of the word “jeepers” in the post-fight interview. Asked after the fight how he had prepared to face Morrison, Tomashek replied: “They beat me up at work.”

It’s unknown whether Padley, a British electrician who tells FightHub he was installing solar panels the day he was offered the fight with WBC titleholder Shakur Stevenson on less than a week’s notice, had the benefit of trading punches with any of his co-workers leading up to his unlikely opportunity on Saturday in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

On the bright side, he probably won’t be bogged down by a belly full of Coors Banquets, as Tomashek had to contend with.

Fighting Stevenson, a slick southpaw from Newark, New Jersey, is a difficult challenge to undertake, even with the benefit of a full six-week training camp. To come in with about four days’ notice, without any time to have a proper sparring session to get your timing right, is an incredible task.

So there is a reason why Stevenson, 22-0 (10 KOs), is a -4000 favorite, according to Draftkings, while Padley, 15-0 (4 KOs), is a +1400 underdog.

But, when money isn’t an issue, and a loss isn’t likely to get you blacklisted, it seems it was worth it for the 29 year old from Doncaster to take the phrase “daring to be great” to a new level. 

The biggest question boxing fans have likely had going into this fight has probably been, “Who is Josh Padley?” Grey Johnson, the chief marketing officer and an editor for Boxrec, told BoxingScene that Padley’s page has seen a huge jump in traffic, with over 60,000 visits over the past 72 hours, as of Friday afternoon. 

Luckily for Padley, he has had some experience of fighting southpaws. His highest profile win came in his past fight, a unanimous decision over the previously unbeaten Mark Chamberlain in September. In that fight, Padley showcased his grit and even uncharacteristic punching power, dropping Chamberlain with a left hook in the eighth round.

Stevenson, a three-division champion who is perhaps the best defensive boxer in the sport, is a different beast to Chamberlain. Stevenson is looking for a fresh start under new promoter Matchroom after splitting with Top Rank, which had promoted him since he turned pro after earning a silver medal at the 2016 Olympics. 

The fight with Floyd Schofield looked to be the right match-up to take interest in his career to a new level. The two have what seems like genuine animosity and disdain, making Stevenson-Schofield the sleeper pick for the fight to get excited about. Instead, Schofield withdrew amid a series of bizarre poisoning claims, which have since been deleted from Schofield’s Twitter account. If there is anything that could redeem Schofield after this series of events, it was Daniel Dubois’ withdrawal on Thursday due to a viral infection, which has taken the pressure off of Schofield somewhat.

What happens when the bell rings? A new opponent is also an adjustment for the other boxer, as Stevenson will have to discard much of his strategy and take a look at what he has in front of him. That process could take several rounds, as Stevenson looks to figure out just what Padley has to offer. 

Logic would lead one to assume that the fighter who has had a chance to properly condition themselves for a 12-round bout will be the stronger fighter down the stretch, particularly given the fact that Padley has never fought in a scheduled 12-rounder. Couple that with the fact that Padley isn’t considered a big puncher and it’s hard to figure out what a path to victory for him looks like.

The mission remains the same for Stevenson: win impressively and establish yourself as someone who is ready for the mega-fights against the likes of Gervonta Davis, Vasiliy Lomachenko or whoever would be the best available challenges.

For Padley, he’s in somewhat of a no-lose situation. He’s undoubtedly making the biggest purse of his career, getting the world-title opportunity that very few will ever see and now will have the biggest power brokers in the sport owing him one for saving one of the fights on the Beterbiev-Bivol II card. Even should he lose, it won’t be the last we’ll have seen for Padley. In fact, it’ll probably be the first most have seen of him.

At least we’ll now have the answer to, “Who is Josh Padley?”

VICTOR ORTIZ JNR vs ISRAIL MADRIMOV (12 rounds, junior middleweight)

Just twelve fights into a professional career that includes a loss and a draw, Uzbekistan’s Israil Madrimov might be on the brink of securing elite status if he can derail the unbeaten record of Vergil Ortiz Jnr in Saudi Arabia.

The fascinating junior middleweight contest, set for 12 rounds, is yet another on the card that is far more worthwhile than the daft interim bauble to which it’s attached. Ortiz, 22-0 (21 KOs) and one of the sport’s premier finishers, is a narrow favorite but one suspects plenty of money will be placed on Madrimov, 10-1-1 (7 KOs), as the opening bell draws nigh. Which is saying something considering the 30-year-old lost his last fight.

Yet it was the manner of that defeat and, more so, the company he kept that makes the result secondary to the action witnessed. On another Riyadh Season event, staged in Los Angeles in August, Madrimov defied almost all expectations when he pushed the seemingly untouchable Terence Crawford towards his first loss, only to be defeated himself when the opinions of the judges were revealed.

At the time, plenty felt that Madrimov, showing culture and guile, deserved more than the unanimous verdict that went against him; though it remains to be seen if it was purely the element of surprise that manifested such opinions. On repeat viewings, the scores in the American’s favour – 115-113 twice and 116-112 – are plainly justifiable.

Madrimov, however, was close to a revelation.

In contrast, Ortiz’s most recent outing – against Serhii Bohachuk in Las Vegas, one week after Madrimov’s showcase against Crawford – ended in a tight points victory that dampened the hype surrounding his previous endeavours. Inside the Mandalay Bay Resort & Casino, Ortiz survived two questionable knockdown calls going against him to pip the Ukrainian on two of the three cards and prevail via majority decision (114-112 twice and 113-113).

The victory – and it should be noted it was a deserved one – represented Ortiz’s first brush with the scorecards and his fourth outing at 154. The Texan, still only 26, made his name at welterweight – halting the likes of Egidijus Kavaliauskas, Maurice Hooker, Brad Soloman and Samuel Vargas – after making a promising start to his career at junior welter, even winning five of his first six contests in the opening round.

Yet there is no one on his CV that compares to the brilliance of Crawford. Even while losing, and that punctuation mark simply must remain on Madrimov’s performance, he showed nuances to his game and the kind of intelligence and patience that is required to quell the fury within Ortiz.

Therefore, the pick, and it’s far from a confident one, is for Madrimov to get the victory on the scorecards after a compelling 12-rounder in which Ortiz will have his share of moments. It should be noted, however, that Ortiz and Crawford are polar opposites in terms of style. Don’t be surprised if the pressure Ortiz brings, his speed of hand and sheer industry is too much for Madrimov.

CARLOS ADAMES vs HAMZAH SHEERAZ (12 rounds, middleweight)

Despite being the WBC middleweight title holder, Carlos Adames enters as the underdog against the unbeaten challenger Hamzah Sheeraz on Saturday night at the Venue Riyadh Season in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

Their bout will prove defining for both and, potentially, represent a rebirth of the middleweight division that has become rather sleepy since the departure of Saul “Canelo” Alvarez and Gennadiy Golovkin. 

Adames has made only one title defense since being elevated from interim title holder to outright title holder, after Jermall Charlo was stripped of the title in May. He has long flown under the radar. Adames, a 30 year old from the Dominican Republic, turned professional in 2015. He mostly fought on smaller promotions until signing with Top Rank in 2018, but he lost a vacant interim WBA junior-middleweight title fight to Patrick Teixeira in 2019. Since that loss, he has won six straight fights – including a win over Sergiy Derevyanchenko and a stoppage of Juan Macias Montiel to claim the interim WBC title.

Sheeraz, the 25 year old from the United Kingdom, turned professional in 2017, but has slowly started to feel like a potential star. Since making the leap to the elite in the division, he has stopped 15 straight opponent – his three most recent opponents, Tyler Denny, Austin “Ammo” Williams and Liam Williams, all had some momentum behind them at the time of his wins. 

Saturday’s fight can establish the winner alongside the unified titleholder Janibek Alimkhanuly and WBA titleholder Erislandy Lara at the very top of their division. 

Adames is a huge puncher, but has also been seen choosing to box and be patient. He has also had fights in which he puts a lot of pressure on his opponents, losing rounds, but breaking them down with his pressure. Adames’ best path to victory is to weaponize his versatility. He is capable of being unpredictable, which could benefit him. Though Adames is going to have to land a telling blow that hurts Sheeraz at some point to win, he will have to get Sheeraz out of his comfort zone. “Ammo” Williams landed a big left hand on Sheeraz in the second round of their fight, which could be something Adames’ might look to take advantage of as well. Disrupting the rhythm and timing of Sheeraz, while making Sheeraz respect and anticipate the big shots Adames can throw, can win the fight. 

For Sheeraz, the most important thing is to weaponize his speed. He fights with a high guard, but slowly comes forward, looking to land power shots and break his opponent down. Sheeraz will need to look to land big punches to wear down Adames, but avoid getting hit with a huge punch; Adames is the biggest puncher he has ever faced. The longer the fight goes, the more it favors Sheeraz. 

Boxing is often about momentum. When your career is advancing, it feels like you are unstoppable. When your career stalls, it is hard to right the ship – only the great ones seem to reinvent themselves. Everything about this match-up screams of a changing of the guard at middleweight with Sheeraz, the exciting up-and-comer with an undefeated record of 21-0 (17 KOs), possibly becoming a belt holder. His knockout streak is impressive and without a title he is entering the fight as an uncrowned champion. Adames, 24-1 (18 KOs), will have to turn back time or land a punch that dramatically changes the fight early, or else that word, momentum, might be the story. The momentum of a seemingly unstoppable and focused Sheeraz means he may well walk down Adames in the later rounds.

JOSEPH PARKER vs MARTIN BAKOLE (12 rounds, heavyweight)

When Joseph Parker was slated to face Daniel Dubois in the heavyweight co-main event to Artur Beterbiev’s rematch with Dmitry Bivol, there was a clear narrative: two men who have risen from their lowest points to enjoy the richest spells of their respective careers were squaring off for the opportunity to fight for the undisputed heavyweight championship of the world.

Now that Parker is instead taking on the Congolese slugger Martin Bakole, that narrative changes just a little. Parker’s remains the same, of course, but the introduction of Bakole – a man who, one shoulder-injury-influenced loss to Michael Hunter aside, has not experienced the career lows that both Parker and Dubois have endured – brings in other elements. The words “risk” and “opportunity” come to mind, as does the prospect of Bakole forcing his way in short order to the front of the line six brief months after he caused boxing fans to sit up and take notice by blasting out Jared Anderson inside five rounds.

So, instead of Parker facing an opponent whose professional career largely mirrored his own – promise and potential, defeat and disillusionment, rebirth and revival – he will now face someone whose boxing path doesn’t look especially similar at all.

When Parker, 35-3 (21 KOs), turned professional in July 2012, it was as a solid-but-unspectacular amateur who had won silver at the Commonwealth Games but had failed to qualify for the London Olympics.

Even though New Zealand’s Parker had not made it on to the stage from which Anthony Joshua emerged with the gold medal, those fighters soon began to be mentioned as potential rivals. Both recorded wins over the usual has-beens and never-weres on which up-and-coming pugilists routinely feed; in May 2016, Parker stepped it up a notch with a points win over a still-useful Carlos Takam, and two fights later eked past Andy Ruiz – admittedly, via a narrow majority decision that plenty felt could or should have gone the other way. After disposing of Razvan Cojanu and Hughie Fury, he faced Joshua in Cardiff, Wales, in March 2018.

Both men were undefeated – Joshua was 20-0 with every win coming via knockout, and Parker was 24-0 with 18 stoppages – but it was Joshua who left the ring with his zero still intact, after securing a unanimous decision. Despite tasting defeat for the first time as a professional, Parker could at least console himself somewhat with being the first to take the former Olympic champion 12 rounds.

In his very next fight, however, Parker was dropped in the second and ninth rounds and outpointed by Dillian Whyte – a man whose career has proven him to be one of the better heavyweights of his era, even if a tad below the elite level, but against whom men with aspirations to be world champion probably shouldn’t be losing.

Parker rebuilt himself with a quartet of wins that concluded with a decision over the unbeaten Junior Fa, who had eliminated him from Olympic qualifying. A return to England involved him suffering a heavy knockdown in the first round against Derek Chisora but recover to score a mildly controversial split decision win, before then comfortably outboxing the Brit in a rematch. 

But yet another British opponent seemingly forced Parker’s career off the rails anew when an imperious Joe Joyce brutalized and stopped him in September 2022.

Joyce’s stoppage of Parker appeared to establish him definitively as the marquee division’s new Big Bad, coming as it did after he had done much the same to Dubois. It appeared to relegate Parker permanently to the level of “almost, but not quite” – good enough and willing enough to compete with just about anybody, but not quite at the level required to emerge on top against the very best.

But there would be a twist in the tale.

Just as he was riding at his highest, Joyce was sent crashing back to Earth, two heavy stoppage losses to Zhilei Zhang exposing the risks of following the Homer Simpson plan of taking your opponents’ best punches until they exhaust themselves. (There is always a Drederick Tatum waiting in the wings.) In July 2024, Joyce lost again, to Chisora, and at the age of 39 it feels like his window of opportunity has closed.

Since falling to Joyce, however, Parker has put together arguably the best run of his career. After three wins, he took on Deontay Wilder and became the first person not named Tyson Fury to defeat the Alabaman as a professional, thoroughly outworking and at times almost stopping him in December 2023. Three months later Parker exceeded even that performance, upending Zhang’s momentum with a majority decision victory. Under the tutelage of Andy Lee and as an integral part of Team Fury, Parker seems to be more at ease with himself in the ring than ever before, inhabiting the sweet spot in which a boxer is relaxed without being lackadaisical; focused without being tense. 

Victory over Dubois would have allowed Parker to claim a world title and to challenge the true heavyweight champion, Oleksandr Usyk. Beating Bakole won’t grant him the purist-infuriating ability to call himself a champion; but he may regard the change of opponent as increasing the odds of earning the right to face Usyk.

Switching from the Brit to the Congolese feels like a risk, as if Parker is taking on an opponent who poses the same or similar risk to Dubois without carrying the upside. That may well be true, but it may also be an opportunity for Parker to shine against a man whose hype exceeds his achievements to date – and may not reflect his true ability, either.

The problem is that we don’t yet know how good Bakole is.

As my former long-time podcast partner Eric Raskin recently observed on Boxing Scene, Bakole may be very good. But he has risen overnight from a relatively unknown prospect to someone being widely touted as the division’s new boogeyman, solely on the strength of his annihilation of Anderson.

As Raskin noted, Bakole, 21-1 (16 KOs), had earned himself enough of a reputation going into the Anderson fight that there was no shortage of prognosticators who picked him to win, but that owed as much to Anderson’s callowness and failure to convince as to Bakole’s strengths and skill.

That said, the win was impressive, and Bakole undeniably brings plenty to the table.  He is powerful and he is swift, deploying surprisingly agile footwork to close the distance to his foes and throw sharp combinations with real force. 

But there have been plenty of heavyweights who have emerged into public consciousness with a signature win or two only to be found wanting up against the very best. Seth Mitchell is one example that Raskin noted, and one could throw on to that pile the likes of Michael Grant; more recently, contenders such as Luis Ortiz and indeed Joe Joyce have come and seemingly gone without making the impression or compiling the achievements that once seemed guaranteed.

Not long ago, similar sentiments were being expressed about Parker until he embarked on his late-stage career renaissance. And it will surely be said about him again should he lose to Bakole – and most likely with greater vigor than would have been the case had he slipped to defeat against Dubois.

In Bakole’s favor is that Parker’s weakness has often appeared to be an inability to absorb pressure – he struggled in the first fight against Chisora, was dropped twice by Whyte, and was ultimately overrun by Joyce. And Bakole is just the kind of opponent to bring that pressure.

But so too was Zhang, and Parker used his boxing ability to outmaneuver him and never allow him to impose himself the way he did against Joyce; it isn’t a stretch to see him doing similar to a raw Bakole, who has taken this match-up on just 48 hours’ notice. 

Defeat for Parker is simultaneously conceivable and unthinkable – an outcome that can plausibly be imagined but which would seemingly undo all the hard work he has put in to re-establish himself, and leave him permanently short of the promised land.

Defeat for Bakole need not necessarily be such a career hindrance, particularly given that expectations will be tempered by his willingness to step in so late in the day. Victory, however, would cap a meteoric rise from semi-obscurity to one step from the heavyweight championship of the world.

So how will it go? Bakole has the size, strength, and speed to give Parker fits. If he is able to consistently close the distance and put Parker under pressure, forcing the New Zealander on to the back foot and out of his comfort zone, he could find himself alongside the likes of Manny Pacquiao in the pantheon of last-minute replacements who have pulled off big wins.

If, on the other hand, he isn’t able to do so, if Parker is able to keep Bakole’s offense at bay with a steady jab, and particularly if he is able to use his footwork and ring IQ to keep turning his opponent and preventing him from getting set, then Bakole could instead be the latest in a growing line of solid contenders who have been out-thought and outfought by the affable Kiwi.

Chances are that would be the outcome anyway, but it can only be more likely given the lateness of the match-up being made. Granted, Parker hasn’t prepared for Bakole, but he has had a training camp devoted to facing Dubois, an opponent with many of the best of Bakole’s attributes and then some. And he is as a result almost certainly better prepared – and, frankly, in better shape – than Bakole, with only a rumored May bout with Efe Ajagba to occupy him, could reasonably be expected to be.

That will change what might have been a close contest into an ultimately one-sided one. Parker may have to withstand some early pressure from Bakole, and there may even be points during the first few rounds when he looks on course for defeat. But he will withstand it; he’ll figure Bakole out and he’ll begin outboxing him to pull even and then ahead on the cards. 

The cards, regardless, won’t be necessary as an exhausted Bakole steadily succumbs to Parker’s assault and is rescued by his corner in the 11th round of a valiant effort that does his reputation no harm at all.