BoxingScene Roundtable: Canelo Alvarez-Jaime Munguia Staff Predictions

When Jaime Munguia challenges Saul “Canelo” Alvarez for his undisputed super middleweight championship Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, it will come at a moment when there is clearly more runway behind the 33-year-old Alvarez than ahead of him. Munguia, 27, won’t be the best fighter to have faced Canelo, but might he be the right man at the right time to shake up the boxing world with an upset of his Mexican compatriot on Cinco de Mayo weekend? The BoxingScene staff weighed in below.

Tris Dixon: I’m refusing to write off Munguia as rapidly as so many are. I liked his speed and aggression against John Ryder, and I like his ambition now.

Canelo has failed to dazzle recently, and feasibly the Canelo of old wouldn’t have allowed Jermell Charlo to hear the final bell. That performance wasn’t abject, but it was not magnificent, either.

The question is, how close is the end game for Canelo? I’d say possibly not as close as it would need to be for Munguia to spring an upset.

I think he will box with enough intensity early on to have success and claim rounds, but ultimately Canelo will start to find his measure. And if Munguia is not spared by his corner, he might be by this version of Canelo, who could coast to victory. Prediction: Alvarez by UD

Kieran Mulvaney: The biggest element of intrigue here really is whether Canelo is on the back nine or walking to the clubhouse. If an apparent decline is turning into a freefall, Munguia absolutely has the youth, strength and energy to pull off the upset.

Assuming he is still even 75 percent of Prime Canelo, though, Alvarez should have more than enough to win. He is more skilled and far more experienced at a much higher level of the sport.

Plus, styles make fights. Munguia will come on to Canelo. Canelo loves opponents who come on to him. I see Munguia starting well but Canelo countering and breaking him down before opening up and stopping Munguia somewhere around round 8 or 9. Prediction: Alvarez by KO

Eric Raskin: Canelo took a page out of the Floyd Mayweather Jr. playbook, floating names almost nobody wanted to see him in with – Jermall Charlo, Edgar Berlanga – and making Munguia feel like a dream fight by the time he settled on it. But I still think there’s real mismatch potential here.

Alvarez is a patient counterpuncher at his core – and a heavy-handed one despite the current 12-round-distance streak – and Munguia figures to give him plenty of opportunities to land vicious counters. I say the knockout dry streak ends. Canelo in nine, quite possibly via body shot. Prediction: Alvarez by KO

Owen Lewis: Some of Canelo’s recent distance fights are explicable – Gennady Golovkin had an all-time-great chin and Jermell Charlo refused to engage. The interesting data point is the John Ryder fight: In the fifth, Canelo dropped Ryder hard and had him ready to go at multiple points later on. Ryder showed immense heart, riding out the storm, and then the storm … faded.

There’s a reason Canelo isn’t fighting David Benavidez: He wants a fight he can win without major issues. The holes in Munguia’s defense are well-documented, and Canelo should be able to land clean shots. But unless Canelo hits Munguia with a perfect punch, I don’t see him having the engine for the stoppage. I expect a moment or two when Canelo hurts Munguia badly, but like Ryder, Munguia will last the distance with the aging predator. Prediction: Alvarez by UD

Lucas Ketelle: Canelo seems tired and at the end of his career. Since his title run at junior middleweight, Munguia has fought many bouts that most boxing fans didn’t watch. Who knows what happens? But experience matters, and Canelo has that on his opponent.

Munguia is reckless when engaging in his offense. Canelo hits hard and counters well. That sums up the fight for me. If something weird happens, it wouldn’t shock me. But I wouldn’t bet on it, either. Prediction: Alvarez by UD

Adam Noble-Forcey: A tough one to call! The very obvious comparison – how each fighter fared against Ryder – would have Munguia coming out on top. But I doubt that outcome very much.

The recent introduction of trainer Freddie Roach could give Munguia an extra edge, but not enough to overcome a 33-year-old Canelo. 

Is Canelo on the decline? The fact he didn’t choose Benavidez for this date doesn’t mean he is. The same was being asked of a 38-year-old Artur Beterbiev ahead of his clash with Callum Smith, but the Russian proved he had another level. Prediction: Alvarez by UD

Ben Blackwell: Having turned professional at 15, and now aged 33, Alvarez has accumulated a lot of miles on the body clock. But if his performance against Charlo was any indication, there is no issue.

Despite Munguia’s impressive form coming off a fantastic win against Ryder, there are still too many unknowns in terms of his potential tactics and mindset. I don’t believe Munguia will freeze under pressure, but his lack of major fight experience will prove a sticking point.

Munguia, though he is young and has an entertaining style, lacks the polish that I think is needed to pull off this upset. I can envisage Canelo picking off an aggressive Munguia with counter shots before ultimately taking over proceedings and claiming victory. Prediction: Alvarez by UD

Jason Langendorf: I like to think people can grow. But it would take a lifetime of prying Munguia’s eyeballs open to watch Dmitry Bivol’s 2022 masterclass against Canelo on loop, Clockwork Orange-style, to ready him for Saturday. Even under the tutelage of Roach, a heat-seeking free swinger like Munguia can’t be transformed into a tactician overnight.

Canelo has demonstrated against various opponents, across multiple divisions, that he can be a force coming forward or on the counter – and that he’s able to modulate his approach based on the matchup. Semi-calcified or not, Canelo is too intelligent a fighter to directly position himself within Munguia’s relatively narrow line of fire. And he’s too skilled and experienced not to take advantage when Munguia eventually opens up. Prediction: Canelo by KO